South Africa's Automotive Industry Shatters Export Records

The domestic automotive industry shipped a record R291-billion worth of vehicles and components to 154 countries last year, cementing its position as the cornerstone of South Africa's manufacturing sector.

New data contained in the Automotive Trade Manual 2026, released by naamsa The Automotive Business Council, shows vehicle exports climbed to 414 271 units in 2025, up from 391 128 units the previous year. The value of those vehicle exports rose from R205,4-billion to a fresh high of R229,8-billion.

The achievement comes against a backdrop of considerable global strain, including the United States' imposition of section 232 tariffs on vehicle and component imports and ongoing geopolitical tensions that have tested supply chains across the world.

Component exports, however, told a different story. The value of automotive components shipped abroad fell by R2,2-billion to R61,2-billion in 2025, with catalytic converters – traditionally the top component export – continuing a long-running decline. Despite that drop, catalytic converters still accounted for 26% of all component exports, followed by engine parts, tyres and transmission shafts and cranks.

Ford Ranger light commercials ready for export

Europe remains the anchor market

The European Union and the United Kingdom together absorbed 62,8% of South Africa's total automotive export value, or R182,8-billion. Light vehicles dominated that trade, with four out of every five vehicles shipped from local shores heading to the region.

Germany held onto its position as the top single-country destination for South African vehicle exports, a ranking it has maintained since 2023. The United Kingdom, France, Belgium and Italy rounded out the top five. The Volkswagen Polo was the most exported model for the sixth consecutive year.

Africa ranked as the second-largest export region, taking R49,5-billion or 17% of the total. Within that, 85,1% of exports went to SADC countries, reflecting the advantage of existing free trade arrangements.

“South Africa continues to remain a significant market for the African continent, and we accounted for 50,3% of total African vehicle production, enabling our domestic OEMs to continue to reach a broader consumer landscape,” says naamsa Chief Economist Paulina Mamagobo.

“The adoption of rules of origin for automotive products under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which took effect in February 2026, is expected to open further opportunities beyond southern Africa. Industry observers see particular potential in west and east African markets, including Nigeria, which has long been difficult to access due to high import duties.

Volkswagen South Africa hit a milestone with 500 000th Polo

“Exports to North America fell sharply. Shipments to the United States dropped 74,4% as the section 232 tariff effectively nullified the preferences South Africa had enjoyed under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Some recovery was seen in secondary markets such as Mexico, where exports to Central America grew 124,3%, though Mexico has since announced significant tariff increases on imports from non-free trade partners.

“Interestingly, despite some of the challenges, the US continued to represent a major export destination in 2025 despite a market decline of 25,9% year over year,” she says.

Local sales surge on lower rates and price choices

The domestic new vehicle market expanded at a strong clip in 2025. Sales rose 15,7% to 597 338 units, driven by lower interest rates, record-low vehicle price inflation and a wider selection of models and price points.

South African buyers now have access to 56 passenger car brands offering 1 995 model derivatives – what naamsa describes as the greatest selection relative to market size found anywhere in the world. In the light commercial vehicle segment, 30 brands and 665 model derivatives are available.

The most dramatic shift in the local market has been the rapid rise of Chinese brands. Fifteen Chinese brands operated in South Africa in 2025, up from just eight the previous year, with more expected to enter in 2026. Their modern technology, competitive pricing and long warranties have moved them into the mainstream, intensifying competition and expanding choice for buyers.

New energy vehicle sales increased 7,1% to 16 716 units, following a 100,6% surge in 2024. But the NEV share of total vehicle sales actually edged down to 2,8% from 3,0% as the broader market grew faster. Globally, electric vehicle sales jumped 21% to 20,7 million units, with China producing 71% of them.

Import story shifts as India and China gain ground

Light vehicle imports into South Africa climbed 28,6% to 391 287 units, meaning imported vehicles accounted for 69,1% of total light vehicle sales, up from 62,7% in 2024. Passenger car imports alone made up 82,8% of passenger car sales.

India remained the top country of origin for the 13th consecutive year, supplying 219 796 vehicles or 56,2% of all light vehicle imports. Most of those are small, entry-level cars, a segment where the locally manufactured Volkswagen Polo Vivo was the only South African-built contender.

Inside the Ford Ranger plant in Silverton, Pretoria

China took second place with 91 326 units, raising its share to 23,3% from 17,1% the prior year. The two countries have established themselves as global production hubs, supplying not only their home regions but also competing directly with South African exports in third markets.

On the component side, imports of original equipment parts by the seven domestic original equipment manufacturers rose 2,4% to R151-billion, in line with higher production volumes. Replacement parts imports increased 2,6% to R107,5-billion, tracking the expansion of the national vehicle fleet and higher vehicle imports.

Trade surplus narrows but holds

Despite rising vehicle imports, South Africa's automotive industry maintained a positive trade balance. The trade surplus measured under the Automotive Production Development Programme Phase 2 came in at R35,3-billion in 2025, down from R42,8-billion in 2024.

Total automotive trade – exports and imports combined – amounted to R546,7-billion, representing 15,3% of the country's total trade GDP. Vehicle and component manufacturing contributed 23,8% of value addition within domestic manufacturing output, while the broader automotive industry's contribution to GDP stood at 5,2%, split between manufacturing at 3,3% and retail at 1,9%.

Employment in automotive manufacturing totalled 113 267 high-skilled jobs last year, while the retail side employed an estimated 380 000 people. Combined investment in vehicle and component manufacturing reached R15-billion.

Toyota facility in Prospection, Durban

Global ranking steady

Global vehicle production rose 3,9% to 96,4 million units in 2025. China led for the 17th consecutive year, producing 34,5 million vehicles – up 10,4% – followed by the United States at 10,2 million, Japan at 8,4 million and India at 6,5 million.

South Africa's vehicle production increased 2,9% to 618 077 units, slightly below the global growth rate. The country's share of global production edged down from 0,65% to 0,64%, while its global production ranking remained 21st. In light commercial vehicle production, South Africa ranked 15th with a 1,2% share.

On the African continent, South Africa remained dominant, accounting for 50,3% of total vehicle production – 1,23 million units – and 46,5% of sales, which reached 1,29 million vehicles.

The Automotive Trade Manual, now in its 20th edition, is available on the Automotive Business Council website. Industry stakeholders point to the need for effective policy support, stronger localisation, the transition to new energy vehicles, improved logistics and infrastructure, and adaptability to a volatile global environment as key factors that will shape the industry's performance in the years ahead.

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Africa Automotive - Improving South Africa's Logistics for Economic Growth

South Africa does not lack expertise. Across logistics operators, fleet owners, infrastructure specialists and financiers, there is deep operational knowledge available locally, visible every day in road freight, regional distribution and cross-border trade.

Yet the country’s transport and logistics system remains one of the most decisive factors shaping economic performance. When it works, trade flows, exporters compete and businesses invest with more confidence. When it does not, inefficiencies ripple through supply chains, raising costs, constraining growth and steadily eroding competitiveness.

The challenges themselves are not new. Port congestion, unreliable rail, constrained corridors and fragmented coordination have been discussed for years. What has changed is the cost of delay. Logistics inefficiency is no longer something companies can work around indefinitely. It has become a material economic risk. What matters now is not further diagnosis, but how decisively South Africa is prepared to act.

“For those working close to trade routes, distribution networks and cross-border supply chains, the impact of inefficiency is immediate. Delays disrupt production schedules,” says Jacques Taylor: Managing Director, Tata Africa Holdings (Distribution).

Jacques Taylor

“Inventory sits longer than it should. Working capital is tied up well before goods reach their destination. These are not abstract issues; they affect day-to-day decision-making across entire value chains.

“One lesson becomes clear very quickly at an operator level: structure alone does not deliver performance. Ownership models, mandates and frameworks matter, but they do not move goods. Execution does.

“From a business perspective, outcomes matter more than ideology. Without predictability, reliability, throughput and cost-to-serve, competitiveness is impossible, particularly for exporters operating into global markets where margins are thin and alternatives are readily available. This is why logistics reform needs to be treated as an economic priority, not a sectoral debate.”

He adds, the private sector has an important role to play, not as a replacement for the state, but as a practical partner. This is not a philosophical argument; it is an operational one.

“Private operators bring discipline, capital, technical capability and a strong focus on outcomes. The public sector brings scale, mandate and stewardship of strategic infrastructure. When these strengths are aligned, systems perform better. When they are not, inefficiency becomes entrenched.

“Anyone working close to supply chains knows how quickly small failures cascade. An unreliable rail service shifts pressure onto roads. Congested ports disrupt fleet scheduling. Border delays ripple across regional corridors. Each point of friction adds cost across the value chain and weakens South Africa’s export competitiveness. In an economy already under pressure, this is not sustainable.”

One of the most underestimated drivers of competitiveness is predictability. Businesses can plan around many constraints, but they struggle to plan around uncertainty.

Predictable transit times, reliable infrastructure availability and transparent operating processes allow for better planning, lower risk and more efficient capital allocation. In many cases, predictability delivers more value than marginal cost reductions ever could.

“Predictability does not emerge by chance,” he says. “It is built through consistent standards, data-driven decision-making and clear accountability across the system.

“From an operator’s perspective, this consistency is often the difference between a supply chain that absorbs disruption and one that amplifies it. This is where structured private-sector participation can add real value, not with short-term interventions, but through long-term operating models focused on reliability, performance and accountability.”

The country also needs to move past false binaries. Public versus private. Control versus concession. Centralisation versus decentralisation. These framings oversimplify a complex system. The more useful question is a practical one: what combination of capability delivers the best outcome for the economy?

“The challenge is not a lack of capability; it is creating frameworks that allow local expertise to be deployed effectively, transparently and at scale.

“Infrastructure investment alone will not solve the problem. Logistics systems are ultimately run by people. Skills, leadership capability and operational discipline matter as much as physical assets. Without sustained investment in these areas, even well-designed reforms will struggle to deliver lasting improvement.

“Another reality worth acknowledging is that logistics is a system. Ports, rail, road and border processes do not operate independently. Weakness in one area puts pressure on the rest. Addressing this requires coordination rather than siloed interventions, and success needs to be measured by system-wide outcomes, not isolated metrics.

“South Africa faces a clear choice. It can continue to manage logistics as a constraint, or it can treat it as a lever for competitiveness. Private-sector participation is not a silver bullet, but when thoughtfully integrated, it can be a powerful catalyst, unlocking efficiency, improving reliability and supporting long-term economic growth.

“Logistics may not always command headlines, but it underpins everything else. If South Africa is serious about competitiveness, trade and inclusive growth, then fixing transport and logistics is not optional. It is foundational, and it requires leadership focused on delivery rather than debate.”

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Fuel Price Dynamics: South Africa vs. Kenya and Beyond

When South African motorists pulled into filling stations in the first week of May, the numbers on the pumps delivered a jolt that few had braced for. Ninety-five octane petrol had climbed to R26,63 a litre inland, marking one of the sharpest monthly increases seen in recent years.

For a country where many households already stretch salaries to cover transport, school fees and food, the jump landed like an unwelcome guest who refuses to leave.

The mechanics behind that new price are anything but simple. Every month, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy runs a formula that reads like a barometer of global and domestic pressures: Brent crude prices, freight costs, the rand’s dance against the dollar and a stack of fixed levies.

In April, a temporary relief of R3 a litre on the general fuel levy was extended, which might have suggested some breathing room. But the slate levy, sitting at roughly 122,70 cents a litre, along with other non-negotiable charges, pushed the final number firmly upwards. The result was a classic case of with one hand giving and the other taking away.

Across the continent, Kenya’s drivers have been living a similar story, though with a different policy flavour. In the April to May pricing cycle, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority set super petrol at KSh197,60 a litre in Nairobi. That figure followed a government decision to cut value added tax on petroleum products to eight percent, while also dipping into the Petroleum Development Levy fund to soften the blow.

The intervention succeeded in lowering the headline price, but it did nothing to erase Kenya’s underlying exposure to global landed costs. What Nairobi gained in short-term relief, it may pay for later in fiscal pressure.

That trade off — protect consumers now or brace them for full market transmission — is one that finance ministers across the region are losing sleep over.

So where does that leave the South African motorist in practical terms? Better or worse off than their Kenyan counterpart? The answer depends less on the headline number alone and more on two structural realities.

First, the mix of taxes and levies that sits on top of the landed cost. Second, the currency exposure that comes with being heavily dependent on imported refined product.

South Africa’s fixed charges — the slate levy, the Road Accident Fund levy and excise duties — mean that even when the government trims the general fuel levy, a large chunk of the pump price is essentially non-negotiable.

Relief measures buy less breathing room than the headline reductions suggest. Kenya’s approach, cutting VAT and leaning on a levy fund, shows a different policy mix that can temporarily lower the pump price but risks fiscal strain if sustained. Neither country has built a structural firewall against spikes in Brent crude or disruptions in shipping routes. Both remain import dependent for refined product and both are vulnerable.

Further north, Nigeria offers a cautionary tale that being a crude producer does not automatically guarantee cheap fuel at the pump. In early May, rapid movements in gantry and ex-depot prices pushed retail petrol into the range of ₦1 200 to ₦1 440 a litre.

Refinery and distribution dynamics are still adjusting to higher global crude prices, and Nigerian motorists have watched their costs climb with little of the subsidy comfort they once took for granted.

Ghana, operating on a bi-monthly pricing schedule, introduced temporary margin cuts and price floors that produced modest relief. Petrol stood at GH¢13,25 a litre in the first May window. But the country remains import dependent for refined product, leaving it vulnerable to movements in Brent and the cedi.

Morocco, meanwhile, has seen prices dip below MAD15 a litre recently, reflecting the direct pass through of international price moves into an import dependent market. Limited targeted support for transport professionals has been deployed there, but sustained subsidy programmes have largely been avoided.

What makes South African motorists worse off in practice is not the absolute headline alone. It is the combination of two structural features. The first is a high share of fixed levies that blunts the effect of temporary reliefs.

The second is direct rand exposure on imported refined product, meaning that currency weakness adds rand a litre pain quickly and without mercy. These factors mean that relief measures such as the R3 a litre cut buy only temporary respite. When the rand stumbles or Brent climbs again, the pump price moves almost immediately.

For businesses and fleet managers, the implications are serious. Volatility is not going to settle into a predictable pattern any time soon. Short term relief measures are politically useful but they do not eliminate exposure.

Fleet operators should be modelling at least three scenarios: a stable rand, a 10 percent drop in the rand, and a scenario where the temporary levy relief is withdrawn and additional levies of between R1 and R3 a litre are reinstated.

Negotiating capped margin fuel contracts or fuel card arrangements can provide some insulation. Operational measures such as route optimisation, telematics, tyre pressure discipline and maintenance programmes should be pursued relentlessly to reduce the number of litres consumed.

For policymakers, the choice is increasingly stark. Protect consumers now with temporary relief and accept the fiscal cost, or allow market prices to transmit fully and risk higher inflation and transport cost pass through into every sector of the economy.

The May 2026 pricing window underlines two realities that cannot be wished away. Headline pump prices across Africa are converging around the same international drivers — Brent, freight and foreign exchange.

The road ahead, then, is not about finding a permanent low price. That ship has sailed. It is about managing exposure, making the fleet as efficient as possible, and accepting that for as long as African countries refine so little of what they burn, the pump price will remain a messenger for forces far beyond any filling station’s control.

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Understanding the UAE's Exit from OPEC and Its Consequences

Just after sunrise in Midrand, the forecourt at a busy filling station hums with the familiar weekend rhythm. Delivery vans idle in a neat queue. A taxi driver leans against his Quantum, scrolling through voice notes from customers already running late for church trips and family visits. A mother in gym gear taps her bank card at the pump, her eyes fixed on the digital display climbing higher than she expected just a week ago.

She does not know it yet, but the numbers she is watching are about to become even more unpredictable.

Thousands of kilometres away, in a boardroom lined with marble and soft gold lighting, the United Arab Emirates has just walked out of OPEC. No warning. No slow drift. A clean break from the cartel that has shaped global oil markets for more than half a century.

And in South Africa, where every litre of petrol and diesel is imported, priced in United States dollars, and adjusted monthly by a formula that leaves households hanging on every cent, the ripple is already on its way.

“This is not a small diplomatic tiff. It is a structural shock,” says Dr Nandi Maseko, an energy policy analyst at the University of the Witwatersrand. “South Africa is exposed. Very exposed.”

Why the UAE’s exit matters

The UAE is not just another oil producer. It ranks among the world’s top ten crude exporters, with production capacity that rivals some OPEC heavyweights. More importantly, it is one of the most technologically advanced and efficient producers in the world. For years, it has pushed inside OPEC for higher production quotas, frustrated by what Abu Dhabi saw as a Saudi-led strategy of keeping a lid on output to prop up prices.

Now, freed from those constraints, the Emirates can pump as much as it wants.

In the short term, that could mean cheaper oil flowing into global markets. The UAE could open its taps to boost revenue and grab market share, putting downward pressure on the Brent crude price that South Africa’s entire fuel pricing system tracks. But in the long term, analysts say, it means something far more unsettling for a country like South Africa: volatility.

OPEC’s strength has always been its ability to coordinate supply among members with wildly different political interests and economic needs. Remove one of its biggest players, and the cartel’s grip weakens. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, may respond by cutting its own production to defend higher price floors. A price war between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would send shockwaves through global benchmarks.

Markets hate uncertainty. Traders love it. South African motorists and businesses will feel the consequences at the pump and on the ledger.

“This is not a small diplomatic tiff. It’s a structural shock.”
— Dr Nandi Maseko, Wits energy policy analyst

South Africa’s fuel price formula is brutally simple. Global oil price plus rand exchange rate equals monthly adjustment. When global oil becomes unpredictable, that formula turns into a roulette wheel.

Economists tracking the UAE’s exit warn that the country could face three distinct scenarios in the coming months. If the UAE floods the market with additional crude, South Africans could see short-term dips at the pump, perhaps a reprieve of fifty to eighty cents a litre.

But if Saudi Arabia retaliates with aggressive production cuts to defend a higher price floor, Brent crude could spike sharply, pushing petrol up by more than a rand and a half in a single adjustment. The worst case, analysts say, is a prolonged period of instability if OPEC cohesion continues to fracture and both Gulf powers play a game of chicken with global supply.

“We could be entering a world where petrol drops 80 cents one month and jumps R1,50 the next,” says independent economist Lyle Petersen. “For households trying to budget and businesses trying to plan logistics, that is a nightmare. You cannot build a stable economy around that kind of unpredictability.”

Energy economist Nomvula Khumalo, who has advised the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy on previous oil shocks, puts it more directly. “The UAE’s exit removes one of the stabilising pillars of the global oil market,” she says. “South Africa should prepare for a period of sharper swings, not just in pump prices but in the broader inflation cycle. Transport costs feed into everything from bread to building materials.”

A mixed picture for supply security

South Africa sources its crude from a handful of suppliers. Saudi Arabia remains the largest, followed by the UAE, Nigeria and Angola. With the UAE no longer bound by OPEC quotas, Pretoria could gain access to more competitively priced cargoes. That is an attractive prospect for a country whose refining capacity has dwindled over the past two decades and whose fuel import bill continues to rise.

But the upside comes with real risk.

A fractured OPEC raises the spectre of regional tensions spilling into shipping lanes. The Gulf is the chokepoint through which much of South Africa’s crude supply passes. Any instability there, whether a price war, retaliatory production cuts, or diplomatic rifts escalating into something more direct, would immediately threaten shipping routes and delivery schedules. Insurance costs for tankers could rise, adding another layer to the final pump price.

“South Africa’s vulnerability is structural,” says shipping analyst Kabelo Mokoena, who has tracked maritime logistics on the Arabian Sea route for more than a decade. “Whether oil is cheap or expensive, the country is at the mercy of Middle Eastern supply chains. A destabilised OPEC only magnifies that exposure. If the Gulf sneezes, our tankers catch a cold.”

SOUTH AFRICA’S CRUDE IMPORT SOURCES

Saudi Arabia — 41%
UAE — 23%
Nigeria — 18%
Angola — 11%
Other — 7%

The UAE may offer cheaper cargoes outside OPEC quotas. Saudi Arabia may tighten supply to defend prices. West African producers such as Nigeria and Angola could gain leverage if Gulf supply becomes unreliable. Shipping risks increase if tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi escalate.

Diplomatic tightrope for Pretoria

The UAE’s departure also reshapes the geopolitical landscape in which South Africa must operate. Relations between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have cooled in recent years, and the split from OPEC is widely expected to deepen that rivalry.

Pretoria has spent years cultivating strong ties with both states. The UAE has become an increasingly important investor in South African logistics, ports, and renewable energy projects. Dubai-based capital has flowed into everything from solar farms in the Northern Cape to port modernisation in Durban. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, remains a critical energy partner and a major player in BRICS-aligned diplomacy, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman having built a direct relationship with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration.

Now Pretoria may find itself navigating a more delicate diplomatic path, balancing energy security against investment interests and broader geopolitical alliances.

“This is a tightrope, and it is getting thinner,” says a senior official in the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, speaking off the record. “We cannot afford to alienate either Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. But we also cannot afford to be seen as taking sides in a Gulf rivalry that could intensify quickly. Every meeting, every statement, every trade delegation will be scrutinised.”

WHAT EXACTLY IS OPEC?

Founded in 1960 by five major oil exporting countries, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has grown to include 13 members, mostly from the Middle East, Africa and South America. Its stated purpose is to coordinate production policies to influence global oil prices. OPEC controls roughly thirty percent of global crude supply, but because its decisions affect market expectations, its influence extends far beyond that share.

Why the UAE leaving is seismic: It weakens the cartel’s unity, removes one of its most powerful producers, and signals deeper political fractures between Gulf monarchies that were once reliable allies within the organisation.

OPEC TENSIONS THROUGH THE YEARS

1973 — The Oil Embargo: Arab members cut supply to the West in response to the Yom Kippur War, triggering global shortages and a reordering of energy politics.

1990 — Gulf War Disruptions: Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait destabilises OPEC unity, with members split on whether to increase production to calm markets.

2014 — The Shale Shock: The United States shale oil boom forces OPEC to abandon price defence and instead fight for market share, sending crude prices crashing.

2020 — The Russia–Saudi Price War: A breakdown in talks between OPEC and its Russia-led allies leads to both sides flooding the market, with prices briefly turning negative.

2023 — UAE–Saudi Quota Clash: The UAE publicly clashes with Saudi Arabia over baseline production quotas, threatening to leave OPEC unless its capacity is recognised.

2026 — UAE Exits OPEC: A major producer walks away from the cartel, shaking global markets and raising questions about OPEC’s future cohesion.

A catalyst for energy transition

The upheaval could accelerate South Africa’s long-discussed shift away from imported fossil fuels. Policymakers have signalled renewed interest in electric mobility, green hydrogen, synthetic fuels and expanded renewable generation. The country has natural advantages: solar radiation among the best in the world, land availability, and industrial expertise in gas-to-liquids technology through Sasol.

Fuel price instability often strengthens the case for diversification. When petrol jumps unpredictably, the argument for electric vehicles becomes more compelling. When diesel spikes without warning, the logic of green hydrogen for industrial use starts to sound less like an environmental statement and more like an economic necessity.

“Instability is often the catalyst for reform,” says Professor Thabo Radebe, an energy transition specialist based at the University of Cape Town. “South Africa has talked about moving away from imported oil for years. We have the strategies. We have the task teams. What we have lacked is urgency. A destabilised oil market might finally provide that urgency. This could be the moment South Africa stops talking and starts building.”

Analysts caution, however, that meaningful transition takes time. Electric vehicle infrastructure is still sparse outside major metros. Green hydrogen projects are capital-intensive and require long-term off-take agreements. Synthetic fuel production is technically feasible but not yet cost-competitive without policy support. The UAE’s exit may open a window, but South Africa will have to move deliberately to walk through it.

The UAE is not just an oil exporter. It is a global investor with deep pockets and a growing appetite for African partnerships. Freed from OPEC constraints, Abu Dhabi is expected to expand its investment footprint as it repositions itself outside the cartel’s structures. That could translate into deeper partnerships in African energy corridors, infrastructure development, renewable energy financing, and logistics hubs.

Trade experts say South Africa should move quickly to secure favourable terms while the UAE is recalibrating its global strategy. The Emirates have already shown interest in South African ports, solar projects and industrial zones. A more independent UAE, no longer bound by OPEC diplomacy, may be more willing to strike bilateral deals that benefit both sides.

But it will require strategic diplomacy, not passive optimism. Other African countries, including Kenya, Angola and Nigeria, are also courting UAE investment. South Africa’s bureaucratic hurdles, port inefficiencies and electricity constraints could make it less attractive if not addressed urgently.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The UAE’s departure from OPEC is not the end of the oil world. But it is the end of a certain kind of predictability. For half a century, OPEC has been a stabilising if imperfect force in global energy markets. Even when prices spiked or crashed, the cartel’s existence meant producers were at least talking to each other, coordinating, finding common ground.

That era is not necessarily over. OPEC still has significant members and market power. But the loss of the UAE, one of its most capable producers, changes the calculus.

For South Africa, the next few years will be shaped by more volatile fuel prices, shifting Gulf alliances, new opportunities for investment and a stronger case for energy diversification. The country has weathered oil shocks before. It weathered the 1970s embargo indirectly, the 1990 Gulf War price spike, the 2008 runaway crude, and the 2020 COVID demand collapse. It will weather this one too.

But the choices made now, by policymakers, by industry, by investors, will determine whether South Africa emerges more resilient or more exposed. Will Treasury strengthen the fuel price stabilisation fund? Will the energy department fast-track independent fuel procurement? Will private capital flow into renewables and alternatives with renewed urgency? Will diplomacy in the Middle East shift from passive friendship to active hedging?

Back at the Midrand filling station, the mother in gym gear drives off, unaware of the geopolitical drama unfolding across the ocean. Her tank is full. Her morning is ordinary. But soon enough, the numbers on that pump will tell the story. A story of a Gulf breakup, a cartel shaken, and a country at the southern tip of Africa that imports every drop and hopes for the best.

Soon enough, she will notice. And South Africa will have to decide how it responds.

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Empowering Female Truck Drivers in South Africa

Studies and fleet operator feedback consistently show that female drivers tend to have fewer accidents, handle cargo more carefully, and communicate better with dispatch and clients. Now, Volvo Trucks South Africa is putting its weight behind expanding that pool of talent.

The company has donated a new FH440 truck-tractor unit to the Commercial Training Academy (CTA) for use in its women truck driver development programme.

Since 2019, Volvo’s Iron Women programme has trained 556 women to become fully qualified truck drivers. The current intake of 14 women is working through a 12-month course that covers vehicle operation, load management, business basics, and EyeGym – a tool to sharpen brain, eye and hand coordination.

While transport contributes roughly 6,5% to employment in South Africa, women remain severely underrepresented, making up only 22% of those employed in the sector.

Untapped

“Women represent a largely untapped talent pool, and since the start of Iron Women, we have seen more fleets actively recruiting female drivers,” says Onica Ndlovu, Director of Commercial Offer at Volvo Trucks South Africa.

“Female truck drivers become visible role models in communities where girls are still steered away from technical or physical careers. It shifts perceptions – for employers, communities, and the next generation of girls watching.”

Ndlovu added that women drivers have shown real resilience. “They are not afraid to work hard, often under tough conditions and long hours, to deliver loads safely and efficiently. For women, truck driving offers a path to financial independence that bypasses traditional qualification barriers. For the trucking industry to thrive, especially in a market like South Africa where logistics infrastructure is critical, it can’t afford to ignore half the population.”

Nicci Scott, founder and director of CTA, has long pushed for more women in the industry.

“We believe in creating social upliftment for talented women by closing the gap through quality training and practical experience,” Scott says. “But this is more than just a training initiative – it is a strategic talent pipeline. While some in the industry initially ticked a box or tentatively tested the waters, they have been met with an undeniable reality: women drivers are exceptionally resilient. They don’t just fill a seat. They bring rigour and a commitment to excellence that adds immediate, measurable value to a fleet’s bottom line.”

Fortitude

Scott said the best drivers combine technical precision with the mental fortitude required for a demanding logistics environment.

“The support from a company of Volvo Trucks’ calibre is vital because it doesn’t help women or the industry to train on equipment that isn’t industry-spec,” she added. “To meet the high expectations of modern employers, drivers need direct exposure to the sophisticated vehicles they will encounter in the workplace. Providing access to this technology allows our drivers to build genuine confidence and technical mastery for high-pressure logistics. That is how we ensure they hit the ground running as high-performing assets for any fleet.”

She described truck driving as “a high-stakes, skilled profession. We are moving past the narratives of 'male-dominated fields' and focusing on performance. This environment requires a willingness to operate under intense pressure and stressful conditions – traits our graduates possess in abundance. For these women, the road isn't just about freedom. It’s about mastering a complex machine and proving they have the grit to thrive in one of the most demanding sectors of our economy.”

Volvo Trucks has invested in cab ergonomics, adjustable seating, and safety features that make modern trucks more accessible and comfortable for drivers of different body types – helping remove some of the older physical barriers that once discouraged women from becoming drivers.

The design approach puts critical controls within easy reach of the driver, improving comfort and safety for long-haul operations.

“We are proud to make a tangible contribution to developing driver skills,” Ndlovu said. “We believe this project will continue to bring change to the local transport industry, which will truly benefit from more gender diversity.”

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Economic Boost in KwaZulu-Natal: The Automotive Sector's Role

KwaZulu-Natal’s gross domestic product grew by 1,4% in 2025, with the automotive industry playing a central role in that performance. The figure was revealed at the recent Automechanika Johannesburg Q2 CEO Breakfast at the Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Messe Frankfurt South Africa organised the gathering, with Nedbank as sponsor. The event drew senior executives, policymakers, and industry specialists ahead of Automechanika Johannesburg 2026, a key trade fair for the automotive aftermarket.

Real Movement

Meschack Zwane, company economist at Trade and Investment KwaZulu-Natal, told attendees that the GDP growth was supported by a 21% recovery in agriculture and a year-on-year surge of more than 50% in vehicle and parts exports. Business confidence in the province hit 60 points in the fourth quarter of 2025 – the highest ever recorded.

“KwaZulu-Natal is open for business, and the numbers back that up,” Zwane said. “Belgium has overtaken the United States as our largest export partner, and the UAE recorded export growth of nearly 180%. These are not small gains. They point to a real shift in how global markets see KZN as an automotive hub. The conditions are right. The question is whether we are bold enough to seize them.”

National Context

Tshetlhe Litheko, chief policy officer at naamsa, added South Africa produced 618 077 vehicles in 2025, with domestic sales rising 15,7%. While vehicle exports dropped by 22,8%, he described that decline as a reason to reposition rather than retreat.

“South Africa has the industrial base, the policy framework, and the skills to be a serious player in the global move towards new energy vehicles,” Litheko said. “The 150% investment allowance for electric vehicle production sends a clear signal from government that this sector is a priority. Disruption creates space for those who are prepared, and South Africa has every reason to be prepared.”

Money and Manufacturing

Takatso Sello, senior manager for manufacturing at Nedbank, acknowledged cost pressures on local manufacturers but argued that sustainable operations offer a real edge.

“The manufacturers who will thrive are those who treat sustainability not as a compliance exercise but as a competitive edge,” Sello said. “Nedbank is committed to being a financing partner for that transition. The business case is clear, and the window of opportunity is now.”

Workshops and Technical Skills

Anton Fiets, executive manager for industry development at the AIDC, pointed to the aftermarket as a serious growth area. He highlighted the AIDC’s Township Automotive Hubs initiative, which provides workshop bays, diagnostic tools, and technical training to township-based businesses. The organisation’s Manufacturing Centre of Excellence also builds skills in mechatronics, electric vehicle systems, and Industry 4.0 technologies.

“The aftermarket is not a footnote in South Africa’s automotive story – it is a chapter of its own,” Fiets said. “When we invest in township workshops and advanced technical training, we are building an economy that works for everyone.”

Michael Dehn, managing director of Messe Frankfurt South Africa, said the event showed a clear sense of where opportunities lie and a willingness to act.

“KwaZulu-Natal has the exports, the confidence, and the infrastructure to lead,” Dehn said. “Automechanika Johannesburg exists to give industry leaders the platform, the data, and the connections to turn that potential into results.”

Automechanika Johannesburg 2026 runs from 27 to 29 October 27 to 29 at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand.

https://bit.ly/4tSOrfh

Egypt rolls out red carpet for global carmakers as local assembly push gains momentum

The Egyptian government has signalled its willingness to offer substantial incentives to international vehicle manufacturers willing to set up production lines inside the country, as part of a broader strategy to reshape an automotive sector that has long struggled to move beyond basic assembly work.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly recently told a high-level meeting discussions with several global manufacturers have already reached advanced stages and the immediate priority is to conclude those negotiations and shift towards meaningful, large-scale production.

"We are ready to offer exceptional incentives to any global company willing to localise its manufacturing here," Madbouly said, according to a cabinet statement. While he did not name specific brands or financial details, the remarks underscore a sense of urgency within government ranks to convert talks into tangible factory output.

The prime minister also singled out electric vehicles as a particular focus, aligning with a state-level push to expand clean energy use and reduce reliance on conventional fuels. That emphasis comes as Egypt grapples with rising fuel import bills and seeks to position itself as a manufacturing hub for cheaper, locally assembled EVs targeting both domestic and regional markets.

While Egypt pushes its own agenda, neighbouring Algeria continues to attract Chinese automotive investment. Sokon, a subsidiary of state-owned Dongfeng Motor Group, is building a car and bus assembly plant in the northeastern city of Batna with an annual production capacity of roughly 60 000 vehicles.

Sokon

Sokon becomes the latest Chinese manufacturer to enter Algeria's growing market, taking advantage of a package of incentives introduced three years ago for industrial projects, including tax breaks and affordable land leases. The company said in a statement that it would initially invest around AD8.9-billion (about $67-million) in the Batna project.

The move highlights how North African countries are increasingly competing for a slice of Chinese automotive investment, as manufacturers from the world's largest vehicle market seek to establish regional footholds while navigating trade barriers and shifting global supply chains.

Back in southern Africa, industry leaders are striking a markedly different tone. According to executives from some of South Africa's longest-established automotive manufacturers, 2026 is shaping up as a decisive year for government to show whether it genuinely wants a sustainable automotive manufacturing sector — or whether it must come up with an alternative economic path that generates as many jobs and as much value.

The stakes are considerable. Vehicle and component manufacturing accounts for nearly a quarter of South Africa's manufacturing output, or 22.6%, while the broader automotive manufacturing and retail sector contributes roughly 5.2% to GDP.

More than 115 000 people are directly employed in vehicle and component manufacturing, with 40% of those jobs concentrated in Nelson Mandela Bay, the country's automotive heartland. An estimated 500 000 people work across the sector's wider value chain. Around seven out of every 10 locally manufactured vehicles are exported, contributing nearly 15% of South Africa's total export value.

BAIC facility in the Eastern Cape - now hosting Foton assembly

But original equipment manufacturers are under pressure from multiple directions. Protectionist tariffs from the United States, the transition to new energy vehicles in key markets, rapid advances in manufacturing technology, and the rise of cheaper imports from Asia displacing local sales have all eroded the old certainties.

Domestically, deteriorating conditions around infrastructure, electricity supply, water, basic service delivery, logistics and crime have driven up the cost of doing business, with electricity and fuel prices a particular burden.

The result, according to industry insiders, is a steady erosion of competitiveness, with government industrial policy failing to keep pace with global shifts. Despite rising local sales and export figures, actual automotive production, local content levels and employment are tracking significantly below the targets set out in the SA Automotive Masterplan 2035 — a gap that points to a widening chasm between current industrial reality and the vision laid out in 2021.

Recent months have brought announcements of new and forthcoming automotive investments, primarily from Chinese manufacturers. Chery has purchased the Nissan plant in Rosslyn and expects to roll its first locally made vehicles off the line sometime in 2027, following plant retrofitting and upgrades.

The facility is reportedly set to produce both new energy vehicles and internal combustion engine models, with market speculation pointing to a pick-up aimed at both South Africa and broader African markets.

Foton announced in March that its first overseas manufacturing base, located within the BAIC plant at the Coega Special Economic Zone in Nelson Mandela Bay, has begun completely knocked down production of its Tunland bakkies.

Geely has re-entered the local market, signing up a network of local dealerships and an agreement with China National Building Materials South Africa to support the coordinated development of NEVs, charging infrastructure and localised supply chains. Great Wall Motors is also understood to be weighing options for local manufacturing of an as-yet undecided model, either by sharing or acquiring an existing facility – possibly on a separate line or lines within the Mercedes-Benz plant in KuGompo (formerly East London) in the Eastern Cape.

While the entry of new investors is welcome, industry analysts caution that these projects must be measured against actual local economic value addition and the creation of sustainable local jobs — not just short-term construction work — as well as the surrounding component supplier ecosystem.

There are expectations that these investments should incorporate targeted plans to achieve the 60% local content goal of the SA Automotive Master Plan, along with a balanced supply of fully assembled vehicles for both domestic and export markets.

Perhaps the most telling indicator of South Africa's automotive challenges is the domestic sales tally. In 2015, nine of the top 10 best-selling vehicles in the country were made locally. By 2025, that number had fallen to just five. Of the top 10 best-selling automakers in the domestic market, only four now represent investment in local manufacturing. The rest are importers, most of them sourcing from Indian and Chinese plants.

For an industry that has long prided itself on being a manufacturing success story on a continent where such stories are rare, that trend line is a quiet alarm. Whether government and industry can reverse it before more capacity is lost remains an open question — and one that 2026 may go some way to answering.

Cover image - AI generated

https://bit.ly/4dTNwGO

Isuzu Motors: Record Production Boost in South Africa

The final production shift of the financial year ended on March 31, 2026, and the team at Isuzu Motors South Africa’s plant had something to talk about.

Over the past 12 months, the local manufacturer saw a 21% jump in production volumes compared to the previous year, driven by steady demand for its D-MAX bakkies and commercial trucks. When the numbers were tallied, more than 27 400 D-MAX units and over 3 800 Isuzu trucks had rolled off the line, bound for customers across the African continent.

But this isn’t a flash in the pan. The growth reflects a longer, quieter story of consistency. Even while pushing record numbers, Isuzu held onto its spot as South Africa’s top choice in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment – a position it has now held for 13 years running.

According to the company, this isn’t about a single lucky break. It’s about customer trust earned through reliability, lifecycle value and showing up consistently over time. The approach has been deliberate: scale up production in response to real market demand, but without letting quality slip. That balance, the company says, is what keeps them in the game as a long-term manufacturing partner.

“Records are built on more than machinery,” said Dominic Rimmer, Executive Vice President for Manufacturing and Product Engineering at Isuzu Motors South Africa. “They’re built on the discipline of our people and the loyalty of our customers across the continent. Every record-breaking vehicle that leaves our production line represents a promise kept. We aren’t just chasing volumes – we are expanding responsibly to move the world for those who keep our economies moving.”

Rimmer also tipped his hat to the workforce, pointing out that the past year’s success comes down to collective effort, solid systems and operational discipline.

At the heart of it all is the Isuzu value of Mutual Growth – the idea that long-term business success only makes sense when employees, partners and communities move forward together.

As the company looks ahead, this milestone serves as a straightforward marker of what the Gqeberha plant can do. Not a headline-grabber, just a clear sign that Isuzu is sticking to its promise of moving the world – for you.

Cover image - AI generated

https://bit.ly/4cm3ze8

How China's Automotive Ambitions are Reshaping South Africa

How Chinese ambition is rewriting the rules of South Africa’s motor industry — and what it means for the legacy giants.

There is a moment, just before the sun dips behind the Magaliesberg, when the sprawling Nissan plant in Rosslyn used to look eternal. For 60 years, it was a monument to South African industry, churning out the bakkies that built the nation: the 1400 Champ, the Hardbody, the Navara.

But steel rusts, and empires crumble.

By mid-2026, the keys to this 60-year-old fortress will be handed to Chery, the Chinese giant that arrived in South Africa only five years ago but is already stealing the crown from Volkswagen.

Nissan's Rosslyn plant - now becoming a Chery operation

Up the coast in East London, Mercedes-Benz is quietly negotiating to let Great Wall Motor (GWM) move into its lounge. Meanwhile, in Gqeberha, Foton is happily assembling bakkies inside BAIC’s factory.

The Chinese are no longer just selling cars here. They are moving in.

For the first time since the fall of apartheid, the dominance of South Africa’s ‘legacy five’—Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz—is facing an existential threat. Not from each other, but from a wave of manufacturing that is cheaper, faster, and backed by the full weight of the state.

To understand the shift, forget the sales charts for a moment. Look at the dirt.

For decades, the barrier to entry for foreign brands was capital. Building a factory in South Africa costs billions. But the Chinese have realized a cheat code: you do not build a factory. You buy a distressed one.

The Chery-Nissan deal is the most aggressive example. Nissan, struggling globally, pulled the plug on Rosslyn. But Chery did not want the brand; they wanted the building. They bought the stamping facilities, the paint shops and the body-on-frame expertise for what analysts suspect was a bargain price.

Why? Tariffs. Importing a car into South Africa attracts a 25% duty. Building it here—specifically achieving Completely Knocked Down (CKD) status—unlocks government incentives and avoids that penalty.

Then there is the Mercedes-GWM deal. It is a sign of desperation and pragmatism in equal measure. Mercedes spent millions modernizing the Eastern Cape plant recently, but with the US slapping tariffs on South African exports, the C-Class line is underutilized. Sharing the space with GWM—allowing the Chinese to build Tank SUVs and Haval models—keeps the lights on and the 2 400 workers employed.

Workers inside the Mercedes-Benz factory

It is a humbling reality for the three-pointed star: to survive in Africa, you might need to host the competition.

But not everyone is welcoming the newcomers.

Andrew Kirby, the CEO of Toyota South Africa, is usually a measured figure. Recently, however, his tone turned sharp. He is calling for the government to ban a specific type of assembly known as SKD (Semi-Knocked Down).

Think of SKD as the ‘screwdriver’ assembly. You import a vehicle that is almost fully built, slap on the wheels and the bumper, and call it ‘local.’ It employs very few people but still qualifies for tax breaks.

“For every job created in a light vehicle SKD facility, as many as eight jobs are lost by the corresponding CKD operations,” Kirby warned.

Volkswagen’s Martina Biene agrees. VW employs nearly 3 600 people in Kariega, pumping millions into the local economy. She is watching with alarm as brands like BAIC and Foton—who operate out of a state-owned factory in Gqeberha—ramp up SKD production of the Tunland bakkie.

The fear in Tshwane and Kariega is that South Africa will repeat the mistakes of Australia. Once a proud car-making nation, Australia dropped its tariffs and protections. The factories closed. The skills vanished. Now, they drink coffee in the converted warehouses where cars used to roll off the line.

The fight is not just on the assembly line. It is in the supply chain.

Renai Moothilal, CEO of NAACAM (the component makers’ association), is watching his members fall like flies. In the last two years, at least 12 local parts suppliers have closed, shedding over 4 000 jobs.

When Toyota or Ford builds a Hilux or a Ranger, they use local seats, local wiring harnesses and local axles. When Chery imports a car, the only local content is the air in the tyres.

“The influx of these imported, lower-price point vehicles into the South African market has had a dual effect,” Moothilal told Engineering News. “They all arrive fully built, which means… there are limited immediate opportunities for local component suppliers.”

Even giants are hurting. Goodyear recently shuttered its historic tyre plant in Gqeberha. The city, once known as the ‘Detroit of South Africa,’ is now better known for its ghost factories and rising unemployment.

If the component sector collapses, the legacy brands lose their competitive advantage. Without a local supply chain, Ford and Toyota are just importers. And they cannot beat the Chinese at that game.

So, why aren’t the legacy brands dead yet?

Drive to any taxi rank or construction site in Limpopo or KZN, and you will see the answer. The Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger are still the kings of the dirt. South Africans are loyal to what works.

However, that loyalty is expensive. Over the past decade, the legacy brands have drifted upmarket. A fully kitted double-cab now costs upwards of a million Rand. That left a gaping hole in the market for affordable transport. The Chinese did not just walk through that door; they drove a fleet of SUVs through it.

“You have to make sure we are well represented in the new emerging market,” says Gideon Jansen van Rensburg, CEO of Motus Retail, the country’s largest dealer group. Motus is now scrambling to add Haval, Chery and Mahindra to its floors because that is where the foot traffic is going.

The legacy brands are fighting back. VW is rushing to launch the ‘Tengo,’ a small crossover based on a Brazilian platform, built in Kariega, to try and claw back entry-level buyers. Ford is betting big on the next-gen Ranger. Toyota is leaning on its reputation for resale value.

The BAIC factory in the Eastern Cape - now assembling Foton vehicles

The next five years will likely see a ‘two-speed’ South Africa.

On one side, you have the Chinese and Indian brands. They will control the volume game—the R300 000 to R500 000 segments. They will offer massive screens, leather seats and long warranties. They will be built in the old Nissan factories and shared Mercedes plants.

On the other side, you have the Legacy Five. They will become quasi-premium brands. You will buy a Toyota or a VW not just for the car, but for the network—the guarantee that the part is in stock, the resale value holds and the financing is easy.

But the middle ground—the affordable, high-volume, high-tech car—is disappearing. That ground is now Chinese.

“The goal is not indefinite protection,” Moothilal warns, “but building a sustainable, globally competitive component sector.”

If the government does not close the SKD loophole and force the new players to build real factories (with real local parts), the legacy brands might pull the plug. They will not leave because of the Chinese. They will leave because they cannot compete against a government policy that lets their rivals play by different rules.

For now, the lions are still roaring in Rosslyn and Silverton. But for the first time in a century, the people who built this industry are looking in the rearview mirror.

And all they see is a Great Wall coming up fast behind them.

https://bit.ly/3OoH8wO

Volvo's Hydrogen Trucks: A Game Changer for Heavy Haulage

Volvo has started on-road testing of heavy trucks that run on hydrogen combustion engines, with a commercial launch planned before 2030.

The Swedish truck maker’s hydrogen-powered vehicles are designed to offer improved energy efficiency, lower fuel consumption, and higher engine power compared to older hydrogen combustion technology.

That performance edge comes from High Pressure Direct Injection, or HPDI, a system where a small amount of ignition fuel is injected under high pressure to create compression ignition before hydrogen is added. Volvo already uses this technology in its gas-powered trucks, with more than ten thousand units sold around the world.

Jan Hjelmgren, who heads product management at Volvo Trucks, says on-road testing marks an important milestone. He adds that he is confident the trucks will measure up well against the competition when it comes to fuel efficiency, power, torque, and drivability.

Customers, he says, will be able to operate them much like diesel trucks. He points to Volvo’s experience with HPDI in thousands of gas-powered trucks as strong proof of the technology’s reliability.

These hydrogen combustion engine trucks are expected to be particularly useful for long-distance haulage and in areas where charging infrastructure is limited or where recharging battery electric trucks takes too long.

When using green hydrogen and renewable HVO as the ignition fuel, the trucks can deliver net zero CO2 emissions from well to wheel. Under agreed European Union CO2 standards, they are classified as zero emission vehicles.

Volvo’s hydrogen engine technology is based on its diesel powertrain, meaning drivers get diesel-like performance with much lower CO2 emissions. The hydrogen combustion trucks will sit alongside the company’s battery electric trucks, fuel cell electric trucks, and models running on biogas or HVO.

According to Hjelmgren, there is real potential for hydrogen combustion engine trucks to play a role in the shift to zero tailpipe emission transport. He notes that several technologies will be needed to cut carbon emissions, and as a global truck manufacturer, Volvo aims to offer a range of decarbonisation options while helping customers choose the best fit for their transport needs, available infrastructure, and green energy prices.

The hydrogen-powered Volvo trucks use HPDI technology from Cespira and offer an operational range that exceeds many customers’ daily driving distances. Because of their low CO2 emissions, they are recognised as zero emission vehicles under EU rules.

By way of comparison, hydrogen can also power fuel cell electric trucks, which produce only water vapour from the tailpipe. Volvo plans to launch those in low volumes before 2030 as part of a three path strategy to reach net zero emissions: battery electric, fuel cell electric, and combustion engines running on renewable fuels.

https://bit.ly/41HEBAO