New AfCFTA Rules Boost African Automotive Trade

The African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) has described the approval of new trade rules for the automotive sector under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a major step forward for industrialisation on the continent.

The decision, formalised during the 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of African Union Heads of State and Government, paves the way for duty-free trade in vehicles and components across member states.

The Rules of Origin (RoO) for automotive products, which apply to customs codes 8701 to 8716, were initially agreed upon by ministers at the AfCFTA Council of Ministers meeting in Cairo in September 2025. The formal endorsement came from heads of state during their gathering in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, recently.

Under the newly adopted framework, vehicles and components must contain at least 40% local content to qualify for preferential trade terms under the AfCFTA. This means up to 60% of materials may be sourced from outside the continent without affecting the product’s eligibility to be traded as ‘Made in Africa’. The arrangement includes a review clause after five years and is intended as an interim measure to encourage local manufacturing and value addition.

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling, Chief Executive Officer of AAAM, said the agreement provides clarity that has long been needed by industry players. “For the first time, we have a clear and harmonised definition of what it means for a vehicle to be considered ‘Made in Africa’. This kind of certainty is what investors look for. It supports the development of regional supply chains and aligns with the broader goals of the AfCFTA Automotive Strategy.”

Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General of the AfCFTA Secretariat, noted the new rules offer legal predictability for manufacturers considering local production. “This approval gives the industry the assurance needed to invest in local assembly and component manufacturing. We encourage the private sector to build on this momentum and work with all stakeholders to ensure inclusive growth across the African automotive value chain.”

AAAM has been closely involved in the development of the framework, working alongside the AfCFTA Secretariat, Afreximbank, and various government bodies to shape rules that support local content development and job creation.

Martina Biene

Martina Biene, President of AAAM, highlighted the cooperative effort behind the milestone. “This achievement reflects what can be done when public and private sectors work together. The framework enables African countries to trade more competitively among themselves and lays the groundwork for the continent to become a more serious participant in global automotive markets.”

With the rules now in place, countries that have committed to immediate or phased tariff liberalisation under AfCFTA categories A and B will be able to begin preferential trade in automotive goods. The move is expected to support the growth of local assembly and component manufacturing, and over time, give African consumers access to more affordable vehicles produced within the continent.

https://bit.ly/4qM9HkR

Andrew Kirby Sounds Alarm on SA Motor Industry's Decline

Andrew Kirby did not mince words when he talked about South Africa’s motor industry. He described a sector losing ground—local content is dropping quickly, exports are too dependent on Europe, and while the world races toward electric vehicles, South Africa’s barely off the line.

Andrew Kirby

Honestly, it was the bluntest industry review anyone has made in years. Kirby, president and CEO of Toyota South Africa Motors, recently presented the 2026 State of the Motor Industry address and skipped the usual talk about resilience or market share. Instead, he pointed directly at the cracks in one of South Africa’s last big manufacturing pillars.

He did not soften the numbers. Right now, only a third of cars sold in South Africa are built here. In 2006, it was 56%. The decline is speeding up. Kirby’s outlook for 2026? Even worse.

“We really lack scale in South Africa,” he said. He meant more than just production numbers—he pointed to the country’s population, limited public transport and basic mobility needs. “We should be much bigger than this.”

Last year’s headline—600 000 vehicles sold—sounds impressive if you do not look deeper. But Kirby did. Take away the increase in cheap, entry-level cars and there is hardly any actual value growth.

“It’s not all that it seems,” he cautioned.

Toyota's manufacturing facility in Prospecton near Durban

Exports look good on paper—609 000 vehicles produced last year, 411 000 exported. That is 68% of local output, mostly to the UK and EU. At first glance, it seems like a win. Look closer, and it is a vulnerability.

Eighty-one percent of those exports go to Europe and the UK. Africa, once important, now only takes 8%. The continent is flooded with used imports and cheap new cars from the Middle East, so private buyers barely count. Most sales rely on government fleets.

“We can’t just shrug and say we’ll export everything to Europe,” Kirby said. “Because those 400 000 exports? That is going to change.”

Regulations are moving quickly. The UK wants zero-emission vehicles, Europe is tightening emissions rules, and every new regulation makes it harder for South Africa to keep up (even with US President Donald Trump removing carbon restrictions).

Temporary extensions for hybrids or low-carbon steel do not fix the issue; they just show how unstable the electric vehicle sector still is. That uncertainty makes long-term planning impossible.

“In the next five years, we’re going to see a big drop in exports to Europe and the UK,” Kirby warned.

South Africa simply does not have a competitive electric vehicle industry yet. The few new energy vehicles sold locally are not made with local parts. No scale, no localisation. No localisation, no cost advantage. It is a loop South Africa cannot escape—and time’s running out.

Kirby’s strongest point came when he spoke about real value addition. That is the core of any manufacturing sector. In 2000, South Africa’s auto manufacturing value was $720 per person. Now? It has dropped to $614. Not only no growth, but a step backwards.

“We’re de-industrialising too soon,” he said. “Are we seeing the first signs of that in auto?”

He mentioned Vietnam—and not by chance. Smart policy has let Vietnam surge ahead, while South Africa has lost advantage after advantage. Electricity is costly, even with improved loadshedding. Wages rise faster than inflation. Water is now a concern—Toyota had to build its own dam to keep operating. Logistics, especially rail, remain expensive, even after port improvements.

Production at the Toyota factory in South Africa

The entire supply chain is under strain. Steel, tyres, the network of component makers built up over decades—all are feeling the pressure.

“We’re lucky we spent 100 years building this manufacturing base,” Kirby said. “If we lost it now and tried to restart in 2026, it wouldn’t happen.”

Right now, the industry needs a serious, honest discussion about policy—before it is too late.

Kirby made one thing clear—he is not looking for quick fixes or dramatic interventions. That is not the point. What he is after is harder: a smart, well-run industrial policy. One that understands the difference between a healthy import market and replacing imports just for the sake of it.

“To be honest, the country just can’t afford that,” he said, referring to heavy-handed import substitution. “The foreign exchange hit is massive, and it’s something we often overlook.”

His argument? Instead of sweeping changes, he is calling for targeted, incremental adjustments to strengthen competitiveness without blowing the budget. The aim: raise local content back up to 40%-50%. Not by hiding behind tariffs, but through timely policies that recognize imports are necessary, though over-reliance carries risks.

He was equally blunt about new energy vehicles. South Africa does not have the option to say the transition is unaffordable.

“If we say we cannot make the shift, we are giving up on exports as well. All we will have left is making outdated tech for a shrinking market,” Kirby said. “That’s just not the way South Africa has operated over the past hundred years.”

Toyota’s strategy sums it up—they are investing in multiple technologies: hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electrics, fuel cells, even carbon-neutral hydrogen engines. There is no single solution, and in South Africa, hybrids will dominate for years. But the issue is clear: only 4% of new energy vehicles sold locally are built here. That gap is right in front of us.

This is not a promise—it is a possibility

The bz4x will be the first electric model launched in South Africa by Toyota

Kirby sees a real opportunity. With the right policies—now, not next year—the local market could surpass 700 000 units. Manufacturing could reach 720 000. That would mean R21-billion more in value and 14 500 new jobs, not counting the broader impact.

“Our planning window is three to four years,” he said. “We are already investing, and to be honest, we are running behind. If we can get this sorted by 2026, it will decide our investments for 2029 and 2030.”

He did not state the warning outright, but it is clear. Other countries are securing investment through clearer strategies and more stable policies. South Africa is competing for those same opportunities, but it is a tough race.

Still, Kirby sees something positive—a genuine, open dialogue between government, labour, and the industry group, naamsa. People are speaking honestly. But talking is not policy.

“We need to act. Now,” he said.

Compete, do not collapse!

Goolam Ballim, Standard Bank’s Chief Economist, set out the bigger picture. The world is not breaking down—it is reorganizing. Alliances, supply chains, the rules of the game—they are all changing. Now, resilience is more important than squeezing out every bit of efficiency.

For South Africa, this shift is both a risk and an opportunity. The old model—relying on a single export market, importing finished vehicles, and exporting most of what we build—is fading. What happens next depends on the decisions we make now.

Kirby’s remarks stood out because he was direct. He identified the problems, put real numbers on what is at stake, and outlined a practical goal. He did not minimize the challenge, but he was clear: the solutions are there if we are ready to move.

“We shouldn’t just ask how to avoid becoming an import replacement market,” he said. “We need to figure out how to build something stronger—to support the circular economy, create jobs, develop skills, and grow a dynamic auto industry and industrial base.”

Now it comes down to this: can policy move quickly enough to match the market? The window is open, but it will not stay open for long.

https://bit.ly/4kITMCG

Afreximbank Membership: Transforming South Africa's Auto Market

In a strategic move poised to reshape the continent’s economic landscape, South Africa’s recent accession as a shareholder of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is being heralded as a potential game-changer for its cornerstone auto industry.

Analysts suggest the decision could unlock crucial finance, accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and ultimately steer the sector towards a more prosperous, integrated future.

A US$8-billion commitment: HE Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa and Dr George Elombi, President and Chairman of Afreximbank at the Country’s accession signing ceremony, marking the launch of a major Country Programme engineered to bolster the South African economy

The local automotive industry, a critical pillar of the national economy contributing nearly 5% to GDP and supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs, has long grappled with the challenges of limited scale, fragmented markets, and expensive access to trade finance. Joining Afreximbank directly addresses these pain points.

The most significant potential impact lies in the synergy with the AfCFTA. While the agreement promises a continental market of 1,3-billion people, its rollout has been hampered by logistical hurdles, payment system disparities and a simple lack of trade finance tailored for intra-African commerce.

Afreximbank, a key financial architect of the AfCFTA, operates the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which allows for instant cross-border payments in local currencies.

The macroeconomic outlook for local automakers, battered by global supply chain woes and sluggish domestic demand, stands to gain substantially. Increased export volumes into Africa would improve plant utilisation in places like Kariega, East London, and Rosslyn, enhancing economies of scale and potentially making local production more cost-competitive globally.

Furthermore, Afreximbank’s project finance capabilities could attract investment into the critical transition to new energy vehicles, however success hinges on our local industry’s agility to produce vehicles competitively tailored for diverse African consumers and on government’s parallel work to fix our ports, rails and energy supply.

If these domestic challenges are met, the combination of Afreximbank’s financial muscle and the AfCFTA’s market access could transform South Africa from a powerhouse serving mainly its domestic and traditional European export markets into the undisputed automotive hub of Africa.

The journey has begun, and the industry is now watching closely to see how quickly the promised finance flows onto the factory floor and out through the continent’s borders.

More than 2-million VW Polo models have been built at the Kariega plant

As always, there is a ‘but’ and in this case it comes from Volkswagen South Africa.

When Volkswagen Group Africa (VWGA) chairperson and managing director Martina Biene wrote to President Cyril Ramaphosa shortly before Christmas, it was an effort to push urgency into a process she believes has dragged on far too long, with real implications for the future of South Africa’s automotive industry.

Speaking at VW’s annual Media Indaba in Kariega, Biene said: “I wrote a letter to the President prior to Christmas. I mainly outlined that for us at VWGA, this year is crucial for securing an investment decision from VW headquarters for the next project in the pipeline.”

Her request was straightforward: clarity. Not only on the financial viability of future projects, but also on whether South Africa’s policy direction gives investors enough confidence to commit long-term capital.

“For this investment decision, they look at the economics and the business case,” she explained. “But headquarters also look at what’s happening in the country. One of their non-negotiables is seeing improvement in South African policies.

“You might have a business case,” she cautioned, “but there are stronger business cases elsewhere if we can’t show that investing here is sustainable.”

She didn’t mince her words: “This year for us is make or break.”

Professor Adrian Saville, economist and strategy specialist at GIBS, echoed the concern. Asked whether a major manufacturer could realistically leave South Africa, he didn’t hesitate.

“Could a specific business leave? Absolutely. Capital can go anywhere,” he said. “There are 200 markets you can choose to allocate capital to. There’s nothing that guarantees South Africa a place at the front of the queue.”

Saville pointed out that the country’s industrial history is full of once‑significant manufacturers that no longer exist. “South Africa is an industrial graveyard. No company is too big, too established or too important to walk away if conditions deteriorate.”

Despite the seriousness of her message, Biene says she received no direct reply from Ramaphosa. “The unfortunate thing is that the President didn’t reply to me,” she confirmed.

She did note that there has since been activity between the Automotive Business Council (Naamsa) and the Presidency’s staff, suggesting the letter may have prompted some movement behind the scenes.

Whether that translates into actual policy progress remains unclear. “Am I satisfied with that? I don’t know,” she said.

Saville argues that certainty alone isn’t enough if the underlying policy is weak. “Policy certainty over a policy that doesn’t work is a death blow,” he said. “We’ve got a knife at a gunfight.”

Still, both he and Biene acknowledge that South Africa has shown it can get policy right. The Automotive Production and Development Programme and the South African Automotive Masterplan are often cited as examples of what’s possible when government acts decisively.

The challenge, Biene says, is timing. “We don’t have the luxury of two or three years of debating and deliberating. The requirement is urgent.”

Her letter to the President was intended to make that point clear. Whether the message lands will matter not only for Volkswagen, but for the entire vehicle manufacturing sector in South Africa.

https://bit.ly/3MsFyZQ

South Africa's Automotive Industry: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

GQEBERHA – The South African automotive industry, a cornerstone of the nation’s manufacturing landscape, gathered this week to celebrate a significant milestone while charting a deliberate course through a period of global transition.

At the fourth South African Auto Week, naamsa: The Automotive Business Council commemorated its 90th anniversary, reflecting on a legacy of partnership and looking ahead to the challenges and opportunities presented by the global shift to new energy vehicles.

The acting Premier, Mlungisi Mvoko, also serving as the event’s ambassador, opened the proceedings by acknowledging the vital role of media collaboration and the growth of the gathering itself. The event served as a platform to recognise naamsa’s nine-decade journey, which began in this very city before its offices moved to Pretoria in 1983.

The association was lauded for its consistent work in shaping policy, driving innovation, and integrating the domestic industry into international value chains. Today, representing 56 brands, naamsa continues to operate on the principles of free enterprise and collective advancement for its members.

The annual industry report presented a picture of a sector demonstrating resilience amid headwinds. For the first time since the pandemic-related disruptions of 2020, the sector experienced a modest contraction in 2024. The total export value of vehicles and automotive components saw a decrease of R 2-billion, settling at R 268,8-billion, down from the previous year’s record of R 270,8-billion.

Despite this dip, automotive exports still constituted a substantial 40,7% of South Africa’s total merchandise exports for the year. In terms of volume, vehicle exports declined to 390 844 units from 399 809 units in 2023.

A notable bright spot emerged in the components sector, where export value increased from R 203,9 billion in 2023 to a record R 25,4-billion in 2024, a shift attributed to a changing mix of vehicles being exported. The industry also successfully expanded its global footprint, now sending products to 155 countries, up from 148 in 2023, with export value more than doubling to 39 of those nations.

The automotive sector’s role as a primary driver of South Africa’s manufacturing output remains undisputed. In 2024, vehicle and component manufacturing contributed 2,6% to the domestic manufacturing output, with the broader automotive industry contributing 5,2% to the national GDP. Investments from original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers amounted to R 10,25-billion.

A long-term perspective underscores the sector’s enduring impact. From 1995 to 2024, over 6,4-million vehicles, with a cumulative export value of R 1,95-trillion, have been shipped from South African shores. International trade agreements, particularly with the European Union and the United Kingdom, continue to be fundamental, accounting for 75,7% of exports in 2024, meaning three out of every four exported vehicles were destined for these regions.

The current year presents a complex operating environment. Geopolitical challenges, including new US import tariffs, have led to the loss of an estimated 25 000 vehicle orders from that market. Despite this, vehicle exports for the first half of 2025 were 3% ahead of the same period in 2024, even as overall production decreased by 2,2%. Domestically, new vehicle sales showed a strong increase of 14% for the first six months, a trend partly driven by a 69% influx of competitively priced imported vehicles.

A subsequent presentation struck a more cautious note, revealing that South Africa’s share of global vehicle production decreased from 0,67% in 2023 to 0,65% in 2024. This places the government’s 2035 target of achieving a 1% global market share under pressure. A central concern raised was the urgent need to transition towards electric vehicle production, as key export markets like the EU and UK move to ban new internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035. While some local manufacturers produce hybrid vehicles, none currently assemble battery electric vehicles domestically.

“The transition to new energy vehicles must be tailormade for a South African context and cannot be a carbon copy of what other countries and regions have done,” Neale Hill, CEO of Ford South Africa stated. He suggested that dramatic overhaul is not needed, but rather selective, targeted policies to support specific parts of the value chain where South Africa can be competitive.

The presentation concluded by highlighting a significant potential advantage. Africa, and South Africa in particular, holds vast mineral resources critical for the EV revolution, including 85% of the world’s manganese and 80% of its platinum. A clear call was made for immediate and structured collaboration between government and industry to develop a concrete framework, positioning the country to become a key player in the global EV value chain and secure the future of the automotive industry and its workforce.

“We are very concerned that our industry is falling behind Africa’s progressive automotive and industrial policy measures,” Hill warned. He concluded that the decisions taken now will fundamentally shape the future of vehicle manufacturing in South Africa, impacting its economic value, employment, and skills base. “We must act now before it is too late,” he said.

Adding to the forward-looking dialogue, Mike Whitfield, CEO of Stellantis South Africa, reflecting on the sector’s foundations, emphasised that its strength is rooted in historical cooperation between government, industry, and labour. He pointed to a major strategic development: the confirmation that Stellantis is proceeding with an investment in South Africa, affirming the country’s role as a strategic manufacturing base within the company’s global network.

This sentiment was echoed in a significant international achievement for the industry. naamsa announced that its CEO, Mikel Mabasa, has been nominated to serve as a permanent member of the International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers (OICA). Described as a “United Nations Security Council for the automotive industry globally,” this position will enable South Africa to help shape the global automotive trajectory and ensure the African continent is not left behind in critical conversations about the future of mobility.

As the week’s discussions concluded, the message from Gqeberha was clear. The South African automotive industry, built on nine decades of collaboration and adaptation, stands at a pivotal moment. The path forward requires agility, policy certainty, and a united effort to harness its inherent strengths—from its deep manufacturing expertise to its mineral wealth—to navigate the electric future and secure its position as a global automotive player.

https://bit.ly/476LzTA

Illegal Vehicle Imports Hinder African Automotive Goals

ALGIERS – A concerted drive by African nations to build a integrated continental automotive industry is facing a formidable obstacle: the pervasive influx of illegally imported used vehicles and a critical lack of affordable financing for new cars.

This challenge was a central theme at the recent African automotive forum, part of the Intra African Trade Show, where policymakers and industry leaders outlined an ambitious vision to transform the continent from a primary importer of vehicles into a global manufacturing and export hub under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Chery Tiggo 2 Pro on display at the Africa Automotive Show in Algiers

A key pillar of this strategy, according to Gainmore Zanamwe, Director of Trade Facilitation for the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), involves “freezing out second-hand vehicles imports” and “incentivising local production” to ensure Africa becomes a “manufacturing hub for mobility” rather than a “dumping ground for vehicles.”

However, this ambition clashes with the current market reality. Data indicates while new vehicle sales across the continent sit at approximately 1,2-million units annually, the number of used vehicle imports, both legal and illegal, far exceeds this figure. In South Africa alone, it is estimated over half a million illegally imported used cars are on the roads, representing a significant drain on national revenue.

“This illegal trade is not just a statistic. It is a direct attack on our economy,” says Martina Biene, President of the African Association of Automobile Manufacturers (AAAM) and CEO of Volkswagen Group Africa: “It drains our fiscus between five and eight billion Rand every year in lost taxes. It undermines our local manufacturers and holds back our industrial development.”

Stellantis stand showing Fiat Panda parts that are made locally

The demand for used vehicles is primarily driven by affordability. High interest rates across many African nations, often reaching double digits, place formal new vehicle financing out of reach for a large portion of the population. Financial institutions also cite challenges with vehicle tracking and valuation as barriers to offering more accessible credit.

“The issue is that high interest rates in most countries are in the two digit levels, and it makes it very difficult for consumers to have access to affordable financing,” added Zanamwe. “This creates a cycle where low demand prevents the economies of scale needed for local factories to produce affordable new vehicles.”

The situation is exacerbated by the practices of some international exporters. Research indicates used vehicles from markets like Japan and Singapore are often sold at very low prices or even written off and shipped abroad, making it impossible for locally manufactured units to compete on price alone.

In response, industry players are exploring innovative solutions. Volkswagen’s mobility solutions program in Rwanda was highlighted as a case study. By offering ride-hailing, car-sharing and subscription services, the model provides access to mobility without the need for a large upfront purchase, effectively addressing the affordability issue through a different business model.

Ultimately, African leaders argue a cohesive policy environment is crucial. This includes finalising the AfCFTA’s rules of origin for automotive products, harmonising standards and developing policies that support localisation while simultaneously creating mechanisms for affordable vehicle asset financing. The success of the continent’s automotive industrialisation depends on its ability to navigate the complex interplay between ambition, consumer reality, and economic policy.

https://bit.ly/3V15xIH

Continental Auto Industry Gathers Momentum Amidst Trade Push, SA Exports Hold Steady

Johannesburg, a historical nexus of commerce and ambition, recently hosted pivotal discussions framing Africa’s automotive future. The gathering served as a precursor to the Africa Automotive Show, integrated within the larger Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF2025), scheduled for Algiers, Algeria, between 4 and 10 September 2025. 

This event is positioned as a critical driver for continental economic integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), even as specific challenges, including the noted closure of South Africa's Goodyear tyre factory, underscore persistent hurdles. 

Representatives from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the South African government emphasised the urgent need to translate policy into tangible trade. Afreximbank executives highlighted a fundamental barrier: not tariffs or logistics, but a deficit in actionable market intelligence. 

Illustrative cases were stark: Tunisia, Morocco, and South Africa collectively import over $400 million in leather goods annually from outside Africa, despite significant production capacity in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan. Similarly, West African nations spend upwards of $3 billion importing meat from distant markets like Argentina and Australia, overlooking potential suppliers including Mali, Namibia, Chad, Sudan, Botswana, South Africa, and Zambia. 

"This isn't about capacity," Humphrey Nwogo, Regional Director, Southern Africa for Afreximbankl stressed. "The problem is connectivity. The problem is lack of information." 

These imbalances represent missed chances for job creation, value addition, and economic diversification continent-wide. Assembly operations at the Toyota plant in Prospecton, Durban 

The IATF, now formally designated by the African Union (AU) as the AfCFTA's commercial face and integrated into its framework, is seen as the strategic tool to bridge this gap. Its relevance was affirmed at the 2024 AU Summit, where heads of state acknowledged its role in facilitating cross-border agreements. 

South African Context: 

Exports and ImperativesAgainst this backdrop, South Africa's role in the continental vehicle manufacturing landscape remains significant. According to the latest figures from naamsa | The Automotive Business Council, the country produced approximately 515 000 vehicles during 2024. Combined with substantial output from North African nations, primarily Morocco and Egypt, total continental production reached an estimated 1,2-million units. 

This starkly contrasts with minimal output from West, Central, and East Africa, highlighting significant growth potential. 

"These figures demonstrate the existing industrial base concentrated in the north and south," says Nwogo. "The potential for replication and expansion into other African regions is immense. 

Achieving a continental output target of 5-million units is a feasible ambition underpinned by the AfCFTA." 

However, South African officials acknowledged hurdles hindering deeper integration. Deputy Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure, Sihle Zikalala, pointed to logistics constraints and skills gaps impacting cost-competitiveness for South African exports elsewhere in Africa. 

He cited the example of a Tunisian colleague driving a vehicle manufactured in Thailand rather than South Africa. "That’s why we are in this room," Zikalala remarked, underscoring the need for the AfCFTA to address these frictions. 

Beyond Assembly: The Skills Imperative

The discussion extended beyond mere vehicle assembly to encompass the entire value chain and skills ecosystem. Industry experts emphasised that sustainable growth requires equipping markets with the technical and soft skills needed to service and maintain vehicles post-sale. 

The African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) highlighted its Skills Development Working Group, focusing on building capacity from artisan levels to policy-making echelons. Initiatives include executive short courses for trade officials and practical exposure within manufacturing plants, aiming to foster informed policy development and local job creation alongside industrialisation.  

Kenya Positions for AfCFTA Gains

Echoing the continent-wide focus, Kenya used its own IATF2025 roadshow to position itself as a trade, industrial, and innovation hub. Cabinet Secretary for Investments, Trade and Industry, Hon. Lee Kinyanjui, stated, "The solutions to Africa’s problems lie with Africans. It is essential for countries within the continent to strengthen intra-African trade... 

With a well-educated population, abundant resources, and banks ready to finance investment, Africa has what it takes to elevate itself to the next level." Afreximbank's Executive Vice President, Haytham Elmaayergi, reiterated the information gap challenge at the Kenyan event, using the leather import example, and spotlighted Kenya’s digital innovation sector as having significant export potential under the AfCFTA. 

As nations prepare for Algiers 2025, the focus remains on harnessing regional value chains, accelerating industrialisation, and overcoming informational and infrastructural barriers. The Africa Automotive Show within the IATF stands as a pivotal marketplace and catalyst for converting the AfCFTA's promise into tangible commercial progress across the continent, with South Africa's established export capacity poised to play a key role amidst ongoing domestic challenges. https://bit.ly/4l644vI

Africa Automotive: Transforming Africa's Automotive Industry - Key Regulatory Challenges

Africa’s automotive industry stands at a crossroads, balancing untapped potential against systemic challenges. The African Association of Automobile Manufacturers (AAAM) has intensified calls for governments to accelerate the adoption of unified automotive regulations, a move seen as critical to unlocking regional economic growth and integration.

With 41 of the continent’s 54 nations lacking standardised fuel quality controls or vehicle manufacturing frameworks, industry leaders argue that fragmented policies are stifling investment and hindering cross-border collaboration.

Speaking at a recent industry briefing in Kigali, AAAM CEO Victoria Backhaus-Jerling underscored the urgency of aligning national regulations with global benchmarks. “Harmonising standards for vehicles, components, and fuel is not merely beneficial—it is foundational,” she stated. “Without cohesive policies, Africa risks missing opportunities to transform raw materials into higher-value products and build resilient regional supply chains.”

Her remarks highlight a pressing dilemma: while not every country needs vehicle assembly lines, coordinated standards could enable nations to leverage comparative advantages, fostering specialisation and shared industrial growth.

Volkswagen plant in Kariega, South Africa

Policy Gaps and Economic Costs

The absence of regulatory alignment has tangible consequences. Volkswagen Group Africa’s Managing Director, Martina Biene, pointed to Nigeria as an example, where inconsistent fuel quality standards disrupted the company’s operations and delayed market re-entry. Such barriers, she noted, undermine Africa’s ability to attract manufacturing investments, despite its burgeoning consumer markets and raw material reserves.

The automotive sector’s economic significance is well-documented. In South Africa, it contributes 4.3% to GDP and supports over 450,000 jobs, trailing only mining in economic impact. Yet, across much of the continent, disjointed policies mean similar benefits remain unrealised. Backhaus-Jerling emphasised that political continuity is key: “Sustainable industrial growth requires commitment beyond electoral cycles. Policy formulation cannot halt with changes in leadership.”

Regional Integration and the AfCFTA Imperative

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), operational since 2021, offers a pathway to address these challenges. By reducing intra-African tariffs and streamlining customs procedures, the agreement aims to create a unified market of 1.3 billion people. For automakers, this could catalyse economies of scale, making local production more viable. However, progress hinges on complementary national policies.

“Regional integration must be prioritised,” urged Backhaus-Jerling. “Policies that facilitate cross-border trade and value-chain collaboration are essential to position Africa within global automotive networks.” The AAAM advocates for frameworks that incentivise domestic manufacturing, reduce reliance on imported vehicles, and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Countries like Morocco and Egypt, which have implemented targeted automotive strategies, serve as models, drawing major manufacturers through tax incentives and infrastructure development.

Ford's PHEV battery assembly plant in Rosslyn, Pretoria

Trade Turbulence and the US Tariff Threat

While continental integration advances, external pressures loom. South Africa’s export-driven automotive sector faces uncertainty due to proposed US tariffs. Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 announcement of 25% levies on automotive imports, coupled with an additional 31% duty targeting South Africa, threatens to disrupt a trade relationship underpinned by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Since 2001, AGOA has granted duty-free access to the US market for eligible African nations, with South African automotive exports — including brands such as BMW , Ford and Toyota — accounting for 64% of AGOA-related shipments.

Though only 6,5% of South Africa’s automotive exports currently go to the US, industry representatives caution against underestimating the tariffs’ ripple effects.

Complicating negotiations is South Africa’s recent foreign policy stance, including its International Court of Justice case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza — a move criticised by US lawmakers. With trade discussions likely to intersect with geopolitical tensions, industry stakeholders emphasise the importance of safeguarding jobs without compromising national sovereignty.

Market Shifts: The Rise of Asian Manufacturers

BAIC assembly facility in Coega, Eastern Cape

Amid policy debates, Africa’s automotive landscape is undergoing a quiet transformation. Asian manufacturers, particularly from China, are gaining ground in markets traditionally dominated by European and American brands. In South Africa, Chinese automakers such as GWM (Haval) and Chery have doubled their market share since 2020, challenging incumbents through competitive pricing and local assembly investments.

China’s influence extends beyond finished vehicles. In 2021, 64% of South Africa’s imported aftermarket parts originated from China, reflecting deepening supply-chain integration. Companies such as BAIC and Yanfeng Plastic Omnium have committed billions to local production facilities, while established players including Toyota are partnering with Asian suppliers to reduce costs. This shift is reshaping manufacturing strategies, with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) increasingly sourcing components from Asian partners to maintain competitiveness.

Government’s Role in Navigating Transition

Industry leaders argue that targeted government support is vital to harness these trends. South Africa’s Automotive Investment Scheme (AIS), which co-funds manufacturing upgrades, and initiatives by the National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (NAACAM) to bolster local suppliers, exemplify measures that could be replicated continent-wide.

Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) presents another opportunity. With global OEMs pivoting to electrification, African nations could leverage mineral resources like cobalt and lithium to develop EV value chains. However, this requires proactive policy-making, including investment in charging infrastructure and incentives for local battery production.

A Roadmap for the Future

Toyota's manufacturing base is in Prospecton, Durban

The AAAM’s push for regulatory harmonisation coincides with a pivotal moment for African industry. As global trade dynamics shift and regional integration gains momentum, coordinated policies could unlock manufacturing potential, stimulate job creation, and reduce dependency on imports. For policymakers, the challenge lies in balancing immediate economic pressures with long-term strategic vision.

For automotive stakeholders, the message is clear: Africa’s success hinges on collaboration. By aligning standards, fostering specialisation, and prioritising regional value chains, the continent could transition from a patchwork of isolated markets into a cohesive automotive hub—one capable of competing on the global stage. The road ahead is complex, but with concerted effort, the rewards could be transformative.

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Speed up AfCFTA and industrialise

Zimbabwe’s Finance, Economic Development, and Investment Promotion Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube, has underscored the urgency of advancing industrialisation and expanding Special Economic Zones (SEZs) across Africa to accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Speaking at the 57th Session of the Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development in Addis Ababa, Ncube positioned these measures as vital for unlocking the bloc’s economic potential.

Zimbabwe, which ratified the AfCFTA agreement in May 2019, is among the early adopters of the initiative designed to create a unified continental market. The pact, established in 2018, seeks to dismantle trade barriers, harmonise regulations and boost intra-African commerce, which currently lags behind other regions. With a population of 1,4-billion and a collective GDP exceeding $3,4-trillion, the AfCFTA could elevate intra-African trade by 45% by 2045 — if infrastructural and regulatory challenges are resolved.

During his address, Ncube outlined key priorities drawn from discussions with the Committee of Experts. Strengthening regional value chains in agriculture, manufacturing, and services was highlighted as a priority to reduce reliance on raw commodity exports.

“Enhancing trade infrastructure and addressing non-tariff barriers will be central to maximising value addition,” he said, pointing to the need for harmonised regulations and improved access to finance.

The outgoing conference chair echoed these sentiments, advocating for innovative financing mechanisms such as blended finance and thematic bonds to support businesses. Digital transformation was also flagged as a catalyst for growth. Ncube stressed that integrating e-commerce platforms, digital trade tools, and fintech solution into the AfCFTA framework could lower transaction costs and broaden market access.

Zimbabwe’s Automotive Sector Opportunity
Zimbabwe’s recent approval of provisional tariff concessions by the AfCFTA Secretariat positions it to begin preferential trading under the agreement. This milestone aligns with the nation’s ambitions to leverage its mineral wealth, particularly in lithium and steel, to participate in regional value chains.

A recent study by Afreximbank, the AfCFTA Secretariat, and the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers identified several Zimbabwean firms — including Chloride Zimbabwe and United Springs — as potential contributors to Africa’s automotive sector.

With global demand for electric vehicles rising, Zimbabwe’s lithium reserves, critical for battery production, could see it emerge as a hub for component manufacturing. Ncube noted that such opportunities align with broader efforts to diversify economies and reduce dependency on volatile commodity markets.

As South Africa assumes the G20 presidency, Ncube urged African leaders to seize the platform to advocate for reforms in global financial architecture. He called for inclusive frameworks to improve access to climate finance and support sustainable development goals.

“Green industrialisation must be prioritised,” he added, emphasising the potential for renewable energy investments and climate-resilient trade policies to position Africa as a leader in sustainable growth.

While progress on the AfCFTA advances, concerns linger over external trade pressures. In South Africa, automotive sector stakeholders convened at the National Union of Metalworkers’ Bargaining Conference to discuss the potential fallout from losing access to the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Toyota CEO Andrew Kirby warned that exclusion from AGOA could cost the company 7% of its manufacturing output, underscoring the fragility of export-dependent industries.

Lada Iskkra

Meanwhile, Russian automaker AvtoVAZ announced plans to expand into Nigeria, targeting West Africa’s largest economy with a spare parts hub in Lagos by 2025. The firm, known for its Lada vehicles, is also exploring partnerships to establish a compressed natural gas conversion plant, aligning with Nigeria’s push for alternative energy solutions. With annual vehicle demand in Nigeria estimated at 720 000 units — far outstripping local production of 14 000 — the move signals growing international interest in Africa’s underdeveloped automotive markets.

As the ministerial conference closed, Ncube urged delegates to translate dialogue into tangible policies. “Macro-economic stability, debt management, and domestic resource mobilisation are non-negotiable for building investor confidence,” he asserted, stressing the need for coordinated national and regional strategies.

The outgoing chair reinforced this call, noting, “This conference must drive concrete commitments—not just aspirations—to realise Africa’s economic transformation.” With Zimbabwe poised to commence AfCFTA trading and regional partnerships gaining momentum, the bloc’s ability to address structural hurdles will determine whether its ambitious vision translates into equitable prosperity.

As global automakers and African industries navigate shifting trade dynamics, the continent’s path to industrialisation remains a complex yet pivotal endeavour—one requiring collaboration, innovation, and an unwavering focus on sustainable growth.

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Isuzu navigates African growth amid global headwinds

While global automotive markets grapple with electric vehicle transitions and supply chain turbulence, Isuzu Motors South Africa is charting a different course — one anchored in diesel-powered pragmatism and intra-African ambition.

The company’s recent strategy reveals reveal a brand doubling down on its commercial vehicle stronghold while cautiously eyeing continental expansion, even as South Africa’s automotive sector faces existential pressures.

Local Leadership in a Shifting Market
Isuzu’s dominance in South Africa’s commercial vehicle segment remains unshaken, with 12 consecutive years as medium/heavy truck market leader. Despite a 3% dip in national new vehicle sales for 2023, the brand maintained an 18,5% share in light commercial vehicles and 28% in trucks — a resilience executives attribute to fleet operators prioritising total lifecycle costs over flashy tech.

“We’re a truck company that also sells bakkies,” remarked CEO Billy Tom during a recent briefing, referencing commercial vehicles’ 59% contribution to global revenues. This focus has proven strategic: while passenger vehicle imports now dominate 44% of South Africa’s market (34% from India, 10% China), Isuzu’s truck-centric portfolio insulates it from the worst of this consumer shift.

The African Opportunity Puzzle
Africa accounts for just 9% of Isuzu’s global sales but represents its fastest-growing region. The company now ships 25% of its Port Elizabeth (Gqeberha) plant output to neighbouring states, with plans to deepen ties in East and West Africa. Yet barriers persist:

- Trade Tangles: A 76-day coffee shipment from Kenya to Ivory Coast exemplifies intracontinental logistics hurdles. Only 15% of South Africa’s automotive exports stay within Africa — 75% of which go to immediate neighbours.
- Assembly Gaps: While Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria emerge as regional hubs, South Africa’s share of continental vehicle production has slid from 63% (2020) to 53% today.

Tom advocates for shared assembly plants: “Why can’t multiple manufacturers use combined facilities, like India’s small-car hubs?” This approach already underpins Isuzu’s X-Rider bakkie — a budget model partially assembled locally using imported kits.

EVs vs. Energy Transition Realities
While testing electric trucks in Norway and the UK, Isuzu’s African strategy prioritises transitional fuels:

- Dual-Fuel Diesel/CNG Trucks: Operational for two years in SA, offering 20%-30% emissions cuts without infrastructure overhauls.
- Euro 5 Diesel: Simplified after-treatment systems avoiding AdBlue dependency.
- Dual Fuel: Locally developed gas-diesel blend gaining traction in logistics fleets.

“Africa can’t be rushed into EVs,” he says. “Our data shows hybrids account for 85% of SA’s 3% ‘new energy’ vehicle uptake — customers want compromise, not revolution.”

Battling the Import Wave
The real threat comes from Asian imports. Indian-built vehicles now claim 34% of SA’s market (up from 17% in 2018), while Chinese brands grab 10%. Isuzu responds with:

- Localised Production: 75% of Port Elizabeth’s output stays in Southern Africa.
- Tactical Imports: Using export credits to bring niche models like the D-Max-based MU-X SUV.
- Skills Investment: Maintaining 116 000 automotive jobs through technical training programmes.

Looking North
Isuzu’s endgame hinges on Africa’s logistics evolution. Tom cites stalled progress on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): “We need dedicated cargo corridors — not passenger planes doubling as freight carriers.”

Recent tests of regional assembly in Zambia and Mozambique aim to reduce dependency on SA’s strained ports.

As the company marks 60 years of truck manufacturing in South Africa, its path forward balances gritty realism with guarded optimism. In a market where 44% of vehicles sold are imported, Isuzu’s truck-led pragmatism may yet prove the template for African industrial survival.

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Africa Automotive - All eyes on Algeria for IATF2025

Algiers is set to become the epicentre of Africa’s automotive industry as it hosts the Africa Automotive Show, a flagship event at the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) 2025. From September 4 to 10, 2025, the Democratic People’s Republic of Algeria will welcome industry leaders, innovators and policymakers to what promises to be a transformative gathering for the continent’s automotive sector.

Organised by Afreximbank, the African Union, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, the event builds on the momentum of IATF 2023 in Cairo, where trade deals worth a staggering $43,8-billion were sealed, attracting more than 28 000 visitors and 1 939 exhibitors.

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The Africa Automotive Show is more than just an exhibition; it’s a strategic platform designed to accelerate the growth of Africa’s automotive industry. With intra-African trade currently accounting for just 14% of the continent’s global trade, the event aims to boost collaboration, innovation and investment in a sector that is increasingly seen as a cornerstone of Africa’s economic future.

Africa’s automotive potential is no longer a distant dream but a tangible reality. The continent is fast becoming a hub for both local and international players, with the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) leading the charge.

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling, AAAM’s newly appointed CEO, describes the moment as pivotal: “Our goal is to elevate the African market demand to between three and five million units by 2035,” she says. “This is a significant leap from where we are today, but it’s achievable with the right collaboration and investment.”

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling

The Africa Automotive Show will feature a two-day forum alongside a dedicated exhibition, creating a space for dialogue, partnership and progress. The event will bring together stakeholders from across the automotive value chain, including raw material suppliers, manufacturers, dealers and financial partners. It will also serve as a platform to showcase Africa’s achievements in the sector while laying the groundwork for future growth.

The 2023 edition of IATF in Cairo set a high bar, demonstrating the power of collaboration and the potential of intra-African trade. The Africa Automotive Show at IATF 2025 aims to build on this success, with a particular focus on advancing the continental automotive strategy approved by AfCFTA member states earlier this year.

This strategy, developed with input from AAAM, Afreximbank, and the AfCFTA Secretariat, aims to strengthen regional supply chains, boost local manufacturing, and promote African-made solutions.

One of the key challenges facing the industry is the dominance of used vehicle imports, which currently account for a significant portion of Africa’s automotive market.

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Backhaus-Jerling emphasises the need for a phased approach to reducing these imports. “The volume of used vehicles dilutes the opportunity for local manufacturing and after-sales services,” she explains. “By investing in local production, we can create jobs, empower communities, and build a resilient intra-African supply chain.”

As the host nation, Algeria is poised to play a leading role in shaping the future of Africa’s automotive industry. The country has recently implemented policy reforms to attract investment and boost local manufacturing. Major assembly plants, such as those operated by Stellantis, have already been established, signalling Algeria’s commitment to driving industrialisation and inspiring similar developments across the continent.

Algeria’s strategic location and growing infrastructure make it an ideal host for the Africa Automotive Show. The event will not only showcase the country’s progress but also highlight its potential as a key player in Africa’s automotive ecosystem.

The Africa Automotive Show is more than just a trade event; it’s a gateway to an integrated African market of some 1,3-billion people and a combined GDP exceeding $3,5-trillion. Enabled by the AfCFTA, this market represents a wealth of opportunities for industry players, from raw material suppliers and manufacturers to dealers and aftermarket providers.

Andrew Binning, Director of the Africa Automotive Show, describes the event as the ultimate platform for industry stakeholders. “Our vision is to unite players from every corner of Africa and beyond,” he says. “This is where the future of Africa’s automotive industry will be shaped.”

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The Africa Automotive Show will feature a diverse range of exhibitors, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), national assemblers and value chain partners. The accompanying Automotive Forum will bring together thought leaders, global partners, and heads of state to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the industry.

By fostering collaboration, innovation, and investment, the show has the potential to transform the continent’s automotive landscape, creating jobs, boosting economies, and improving mobility for millions of people.

In the words of Victoria Backhaus-Jerling: “This is more than an event; it’s a catalyst for change. Together, we can build an automotive industry that reflects Africa’s resilience, creativity, and entrepreneurial spirit.”

This article first appeared on CHANGECARS

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Revealed: The True Numbers Behind South Africa's Car Industry in 2025

South Africa's roads now have about 12-million vehicles. This remarkable figure highlights the country's vehicle growth from 10.3 million registered vehicles in 2020.

The automotive sector reveals some intriguing patterns. Only 2,4-million vehicles have financing, while 3-million carry insurance. The industry generates 24-million sales leads yearly but converts these into just 580 000 vehicle sales. New vehicles account for 180 000 sales and used vehicles make up 400 000 of the total.

January 2025 brought encouraging news with vehicle sales hitting 46 400 units - a 10,4% jump from December 2024. This analysis will dive into these numbers deeply. We'll look at market trends and fleet management challenges to give you a detailed picture of South Africa's evolving automotive sector.

South Africa's automotive sector continues to thrive in early 2025 as growth spreads through many segments.

Total Vehicle Population Statistics 2025

The automotive industry plays a vital role in South Africa's economy and factors in 4.9% of the GDP (2,9% manufacturing and ,02% retail). South Africa ranks as the 22nd largest vehicle producer worldwide with a 0,65% share of global vehicle production. The country's automotive manufacturing makes up 21,7% of domestic manufacturing output.

New Vehicle Sales Growth Trends

January 2025 started strong as the total domestic new vehicle sales reached 46 398 units. This represents a rise of 4 375 units or 10,4% compared to January 2024. The passenger car segment performed well with 34 530 units, an 18,3% jump from the previous year. On top of that, car rental sales made up 19.,% of new passenger vehicle sales.

AI generated image

Regional Market Distribution

The market reveals interesting regional patterns. SADC countries lead South Africa's export market. Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Zambia have become the main export destinations – Kenya and Ghana now just need more South African vehicles.

The domestic market shows new trends in import sources. India's share of vehicle imports grew from 11% in 2012 to 28% in 2022 . Chinese manufacturers have gained ground too, and their market share expanded from 1% to 11% between 2010 and 2022. They achieved an annual growth rate of 7.2%.

Credit Application Success Rates

The credit market of 2025 shows mixed signals. Vehicle loan originations grew 1,1% in Q3 2024, and average new account amounts increased by 2,4%. The total number of active Vehicle Asset Finance (VAF) accounts stands steady at 2,1-million. The market remains strong as 80% of new cars and over 50% of used cars secure financing.

Alternative Financing Options

The changing market has led to new financing solutions for #carbuyers:

- South African roads now have 25 000 vehicles under long-term rentals and subscriptions
- Lease agreements come with flexible terms and optional end-of-term purchase rights
- Rent-to-buy models have become popular alternatives to traditional financing

The financing world shows a clear generational change. Gen Z's share of new vehicle loans has grown from 13,7% to 16,6%. Millennials lead the pack with 40% of new vehicle purchase. Q2 2024 saw the average loan value reach R400 000, showing how financial pressures continue to shape #carlifestyle choices.

Fleet Management Transformation #fleetmanagement

South African fleet managers are moving faster toward digital transformation, and 91% plan to increase their investment in digital fleet technologies over the next five years.

The fleet management sector continues to show resilient growth, and active systems should reach 3,8-million units by 2028. Five domestic players control 70% of the market share. January 2025's commercial vehicle sales demonstrate this growth, with medium trucks showing an 11.6% increase.

Digital Fleet Solutions Impact

AI leads the state-of-the-art fleet solutions, with 23% of fleet managers already using AI solutions. These managers expect AI adoption to reach 58% within the next five years. AI technology shows its effects in several areas:

- 62% expect AI to optimize route planning
- 56% anticipate improved driver safety
- 55% look forward to better predictive maintenance

Operational Cost Trends

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) remains crucial in fleet management decisions. Fleet expenses split between fixed and variable costs, with maintenance and fuel making up the largest variable expenses. Fleet managers now emphasize proactive maintenance strategies to reduce unplanned downtime and extend vehicle lifespans.

Fleet management software makes real-time expense tracking and TCO calculation possible. IoT sensors monitor vital components and detect potential problems early. This comprehensive strategy helps avoid expensive repairs while keeping optimal fleet availability.

South Africa's e-commerce market has reached R71-billion in 2023, which has led to a surge in the logistics sector's vehicle needs. This represents a 29% growth from the previous year.

The commercial vehicles market continues to expand strongly. Fastway Couriers has grown their delivery fleet by 132% in Gauteng alone in the last decade. The manufacturing segment leads as the fastest-growing sector in the South African freight and logistics market and projects a growth rate of 7% during 2024-2029.

These key factors shape delivery vehicle sales:

- Increased urbanization and e-commerce volumes
- Implementation of route optimization technologies
- Growing need for electric and hybrid commercial vehicles
- Rising need for urban delivery solutions

E-commerce Impact on Fleet Requirements

Online retail sector's expansion reshapes fleet requirements completely . Road transport now handles 85% of all exports to ports or airports. The wholesale and retail trade segment leads the freight and logistics market with a 39% market share in 2024.

E-commerce growth creates unique challenges for delivery fleets. Fuel costs and security expenses affect operational efficiency substantially. Last-mile delivery costs range between R90 to R900 per package. This has led companies to explore innovative solutions like aggregator platforms and crowdsourced delivery services.

Rhenus South Africa shows how the logistics industry adapts through expansion. They opened a 3 000 square meter warehouse near Pretoria and a 2 000 square meter facility in East London. M24 Logistics revealed a 30 000 square meter warehouse in Montague Gardens. These developments show how the sector responds to growing e-commerce needs.

South Africa's automotive sector continues to evolve rapidly. Vehicle financing companies now offer groundbreaking options such as long-term rentals and subscription models that match what customers just need. Fleet managers lead the way in digital advancement, and 91% of them plan to invest more in technology over the next five years.

E-commerce growth propels the logistics sector forward, especially when you have rising delivery vehicle demands. The R71-billion e-commerce market value and expanding warehouses in major cities reflect these economic changes.

Regional trends paint a clear picture. SADC countries continue as key export partners while India and China increase their vehicle imports to the domestic market. These developments create a more diverse and competitive automotive landscape.

The country ranks as the world's 22nd largest vehicle producer and contributes 4,9% to the GDP. This shows the automotive sector's crucial role in the national economy. The industry's flexibility and expansion point to a bright future through 2025 and beyond.

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Auto industry needs to gear up says Toyota boss

To fully cement the viability and sustainability of the South African auto industry new vehicle sales volumes need to exceed 600 000 units a year according to Andrew Kirby, President and CEO of Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) who made the statement at his annual State of the Motor Industry address recently – at which event Toyota also revealed six new models for launch in the first quarter.

Kirby’s, keynote address titled “The Year That Was”, offered a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities facing South Africa’s motor industry and emphasised the urgent need to boost vehicle sales to attract increased foreign investment. He also stressed the critical role of government policies noting, while recent incentives for battery electric vehicle (BEV) production were a step forward, they remain insufficient to secure the industry’s future.

Andrew Kirby

“South Africa’s automotive sector is grappling with de-industrialisation and a decline in local content, which has dropped below 40% for domestically produced vehicles,” he said. However, he maintained cautious optimism, projecting a 3,7% growth in sales for 2025, reaching 535 000 units, attributing this to potential interest rate cuts and stabilising fuel prices.

Adding to the discussion, Mikel Mabasa, CEO of NAAMSA, highlighted South Africa’s political stability as a rare advantage in the region, expressing hope for what he termed a “year of abundance.”

Emerging Automotive Trends

Kirby identified five major trends reshaping the industry:

- Shifting Consumer Preferences: South Africans are increasingly opting for smaller, more affordable vehicles, with a 2,27% drop in the average passenger car price between 2023 and 2024.
- SUV Dominance: SUVs now account for over half of passenger car sales, with the number of available models rising from 114 in 2018 to 166 in 2024.
- Demand for In-Car Technology: Features such as customisation, connectivity and voice control are becoming standard, even in entry-level models.
- Rise of Indian and Chinese Production: Chinese and Indian vehicle imports have surged, making up 37% of local sales in 2023, compared to just 18% in 2018. Meanwhile, locally produced vehicle sales have dropped from 46% to 43%.
- The NEV Transition: The adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles is gaining traction, however, widespread adoption of BEVs in South Africa is unlikely before 2029 without stronger government incentives.

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“The industry’s growth will depend on collaboration, adaptability and a supportive policy framework – paving the way for a brighter future in the years ahead,” he says.

Steel Woes

South Africa's automotive industry has emphasised the urgent need for a robust and sustainable local steel supply chain, citing its critical role in vehicle production, particularly in safety-critical components. Kirby expressed concern about challenges facing the steel sector, including policy issues, logistical inefficiencies, and electricity costs, all of which are contributing to rising uncertainty.

"We cannot rely on scrap metal with impurities, which some local suppliers currently provide. This makes the stability of local steel production absolutely vital for us," he says. "The recent announcement regarding the risks to Newcastle’s operations is very serious for us. It’s encouraging that open discussions are underway, and there may be positive outcomes, but the underlying challenges are clear."

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Three key issues were identified as critical to resolving the steel industry’s struggles:

- Policy Concerns: The decentralisation of scrap metal exports has created an imbalance in the local market, with industries indirectly subsidising this system.
- Transport Costs: High logistical expenses are significantly driving up the cost of steel production.
- Electricity Prices: The sector continues to grapple with exorbitant energy costs, which undermine competitiveness.

Steel constitutes approximately 25%–30% of the local content in South African-manufactured vehicles, a figure that remains constant even with the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This highlights the importance of ensuring the sustainability of the steel industry for the future of the automotive sector.

"While we acknowledge the complexity of these challenges, we believe structural issues in the steel sector must be addressed by experts in the field. As an automotive industry, we are committed to supporting and collaborating where we can guide these efforts in the right direction," added Kirby.

A meeting with the CEO of ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) further underscored the importance of increasing local demand for steel. AMSA urged original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to source more steel domestically to help stabilise and grow the sector. Out of the seven OEMs operating in South Africa, four currently source most of their steel locally, with ongoing discussions aimed at encouraging further uptake.

"We need to create an environment where local steel production is competitive and sustainable. Investment in infrastructure and achieving scale is critical, not just for the steel sector but for the broader automotive industry," he says.

Looking back, Kirby said 2024 was anticipated to follow a predictable trajectory, with a softer first half and stronger second half. However, this pattern failed to materialise. While the resolution of the energy crisis – with 300 days of uninterrupted electricity supply provided much-needed economic relief, ongoing challenges in transport and logistics hampered recovery efforts.

“The national elections also played a pivotal role. Although they concluded smoothly, pre-election tensions impacted consumer and business confidence, delaying economic recovery. By year-end, vehicle sales reached 515 000 units, falling short of the forecasted 540 000. The taxi sector’s dramatic 60% contraction, driven by fraud and financing issues, exacerbated the decline. Adjusting for this anomaly, the market would have only dropped by 1,3%.

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“The South African automotive industry remains below pre-pandemic levels, with sales still trailing 2019 figures. For sustainable growth, experts suggest the market must exceed 600 000 annual units. Falling short of this benchmark makes it difficult for the sector to achieve scale and long-term stability,” he says.

Consumer Trends: Affordability and Preference Shifts

Affordability emerged as a dominant theme in 2024. The average selling price of passenger vehicles declined, reflecting a clear shift towards more budget-friendly options, particularly in the B-segment. This trend, driven by rising economic pressures and tighter credit conditions, was also evident in increased used car sales.

SUVs and crossovers continued their meteoric rise in popularity, now accounting for 53% of passenger vehicle sales. The introduction of new models has further bolstered this segment, particularly in premium categories. Consumer preferences have also evolved, with in-car experiences such as advanced infotainment systems, connectivity, and luxury features becoming key purchase drivers, even for mid-range vehicles.

“The automotive sector faces significant structural hurdles. Despite the existence of a national automotive master plan since 2018, little progress has been made in optimising the local market. The failure to implement key elements of the plan has stifled growth, while efforts to integrate regional markets through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement remain incomplete.

“Additionally, the lack of incentives to promote new energy vehicles (NEVs) is hindering South Africa’s ability to attract investment in this area. While a new tax mechanism offers a 35% incentive for capital investment in NEVs, the local market for these vehicles remains negligible, creating a barrier to growth in domestic production and exports.”

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Globally, Chinese and Indian vehicle manufacturers are asserting dominance, with China now accounting for 29% of global vehicle production. This trend is reshaping competition in South Africa, as both nations expand their influence in emerging markets.

At the same time, global conflicts, from the Russia-Ukraine war to Middle East tensions, have added to supply chain disruptions and market volatility. Climate-related challenges have also begun to impact South Africa, further complicating the operating environment.

“To thrive, the South African automotive industry must overcome structural inefficiencies and prioritise market integration and innovation. Affordability will remain a key factor influencing consumer behaviour, alongside a growing preference for SUVs and advanced in-car experiences.

“The sector’s future also hinges on its ability to embrace new energy vehicles, align with global trends, and secure regional trade agreements. With these measures in place, South Africa could unlock the growth potential necessary to surpass the critical 600 000-unit threshold and secure long-term sustainability.”

Vehicle Reveals

The event wasn’t just about industry insights. TSAM’s Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing, Leon Theron, unveiled sic new models including:

- The updated Corolla Cross, featuring a refreshed design and enhanced safety features.
- The powerful Fortuner GR-S, now boasting 165kW and 550Nm of torque.
- The refined GR Yaris Upgrade, with an impressive 210kW output and a new eight-speed automatic option.
- The distinctive Hilux Legend 55, showcasing wide-body styling and performance upgrades.
- The enhanced Lexus LX and its newly introduced hybrid variant, the 700h.
- The all-new Lexus GX, a rugged yet luxurious off-roader debuting with an adventurous Overtrail variant.

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Africa Automotive - 2024 Growth of Africa's Automotive Sector

In 2024, Africa's automotive sector witnessed notable progress, primarily spurred by increased local production and advantageous trade policies. The continent is attracting a variety of automakers, both international and local, who recognise the potential within the region. This interest has led to a rise in automotive manufacturing plants across multiple African countries, reflecting a deliberate move towards regional production. The industry is also seeing a diversification of vehicle models being produced, catering to both local market demands and export opportunities.

Efforts to bolster the automotive industry are evident in the investments being made in infrastructure and technology. Countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco are key players, offering a blend of skilled labour and favourable business environments. This development is creating job opportunities and fostering skills transfer, contributing to broader economic growth.

Another critical factor in this growth is the increasing collaboration between governments and industry stakeholders to create supportive policies and initiatives. These include tax incentives for manufacturers, streamlined customs procedures, and efforts to harmonise vehicle standards across the continent. Such measures are aimed at making Africa an attractive destination for automotive investment.

Furthermore, the push towards sustainability is also shaping the sector, with an increased focus on electric vehicles and green manufacturing practices. This trend is aligning with global shifts towards environmentally friendly motoring solutions, positioning Africa as a forward-thinking player in the global automotive arena.

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Impact of the African Free Trade Agreement

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has the potential to transform the automotive industry across the continent. By connecting more than1,3-billion people into a single market, the AfCFTA provides significant opportunities for automakers to expand their reach and streamline operations. Additionally, a World Economic Forum report anticipates that global business under this agreement could boost the African automotive industry by $12-billion by 2027. These developments promise a more integrated market, reducing tariffs and improving trade efficiencies among African nations.

The removal of trade barriers under the AfCFTA is expected to ease the movement of automotive components and finished vehicles across borders. This will likely result in lower costs for manufacturers and consumers alike, fostering a more competitive market environment. Additionally, the agreement encourages regional value chains, allowing different African countries to specialise in various stages of vehicle production. This approach can lead to increased efficiency and higher-quality outputs.

Moreover, the harmonisation of regulations and standards across member states will simplify compliance for automakers, making it easier for them to operate in multiple countries. This is particularly beneficial for small and medium-sized enterprises looking to enter the automotive market. The AfCFTA's emphasis on economic integration and industrialisation aligns with the broader goal of sustainable development, positioning Africa as an increasingly attractive destination for automotive investment.

Indicators of Growth in the Automotive Industry

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The positive trajectory of Africa's automotive sector can be seen through various indicators. Afreximbank, in collaboration with the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers, is actively supporting industry growth. By harmonising automotive standards, developing training programmes, and providing financing, they aim to facilitate industry growth, with Afreximbank committing $1 billion to these efforts.

Vehicle production and sales figures are on the rise, reflecting increased consumer demand and manufacturing capacity. The establishment of new manufacturing plants in various African nations demonstrates robust confidence from both international and local investors. These investments are not only boosting production but also generating employment opportunities and enhancing skill development.

Furthermore, the automotive sector is benefiting from a rise in partnerships and joint ventures aimed at leveraging local expertise and global technology. This collaborative approach is leading to improved production processes and the introduction of innovative vehicle models tailored to the African market.

Another crucial indicator is the development of supply chain networks that are becoming more sophisticated, ensuring the efficient movement of automotive components and finished vehicles. These advancements are essential for meeting the growing demand for cars and motoring solutions across the continent.

In summary, these indicators highlight the increasing dynamism within Africa's automotive industry, showcasing a sector poised for sustained growth and development.

Industry Challenges

The African automotive industry, despite its promising growth, faces a range of challenges that could impede its progress. One of the most pressing issues is the inadequacy of infrastructure. In many regions, road networks and port facilities are not sufficiently developed to support efficient supply chain operations. This situation creates bottlenecks that can delay the movement of automotive components and finished vehicles, thereby increasing costs and affecting competitiveness.

Economic instability in some African nations also poses significant risks to the industry's growth. Fluctuations in currency values and inflation rates can create an unpredictable business environment, making it difficult for automakers to plan long-term investments. Additionally, political instability in certain areas can deter potential investors and disrupt existing operations.

Another challenge lies in the regulatory landscape, which can vary significantly from one country to another. This lack of uniformity complicates compliance for automakers, particularly those looking to operate across multiple African nations. While efforts are being made to harmonise vehicle standards under initiatives like the AfCFTA, achieving comprehensive regulatory alignment remains a work in progress.

Furthermore, access to financing is a critical hurdle for many local enterprises looking to enter the automotive sector. High interest rates and limited availability of credit can stifle innovation and restrict the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises that are essential for a vibrant automotive ecosystem.

Labour issues, such as the availability of skilled workers, also present obstacles. While some countries are investing in training programmes, the overall skill level of the workforce needs to be elevated to meet the demands of advanced automotive manufacturing.

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Technological Progress and Innovation

Technological advancements are playing a pivotal role in Africa's automotive evolution. There is a noticeable rise in electric vehicle production and adoption, driven by the continent's commitment to sustainable development. Pilot projects for sustainable vehicles are already underway in Rwanda, Egypt, and South Africa, with e-mobility startups emerging across the continent. The introduction of smart technologies in vehicles, such as advanced driver-assistance systems and connectivity features, highlights Africa's readiness to embrace innovation and align with global automotive trends.

Market Potential and Consumer Preferences

Africa's automotive market is burgeoning, spurred by emerging economies and an expanding middle class. These factors are significantly reshaping consumer preferences across the continent. There's a noticeable shift towards vehicles that prioritise sustainability, reflecting broader global trends towards environmentally conscious motoring. This change in preference offers automakers a valuable opportunity to introduce eco-friendly models that align with the increasing environmental awareness among African consumers.

In addition to the demand for sustainable vehicles, there's a growing appetite for advanced features and technologies in cars. African consumers are becoming more discerning, seeking vehicles equipped with the latest in safety, connectivity, and comfort. This trend is pushing automakers to innovate and adapt their offerings to meet these evolving expectations.

Moreover, the rise in disposable income among the middle class is leading to a higher demand for a diverse range of vehicles, from economical models to luxury cars. This diversity in consumer demand is encouraging manufacturers to broaden their portfolios to cater to different segments of the market. The interest in luxury and premium vehicles, in particular, is indicative of a market that is maturing and becoming more sophisticated.

The burgeoning interest in electric vehicles is another critical aspect of the changing market dynamics. Governments and private entities alike are increasingly promoting electric mobility as a sustainable alternative to traditional combustion engines. This is not only in line with global sustainability goals but also addresses local issues such as urban air pollution and fuel dependency.

Overall, the evolving market potential and consumer preferences in Africa present a promising landscape for the automotive industry. By responding to these trends, automakers can tap into a market that is both growing and increasingly sophisticated in its demands.

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Future Outlook and Opportunities

Looking ahead, Africa's automotive sector is poised for further advancement, driven by a combination of strategic investments, policy reforms, and technological innovation. The region's commitment to enhancing infrastructure and reducing trade barriers sets the stage for a more integrated and efficient automotive industry. Continued collaboration between governments and industry stakeholders will be crucial in creating an environment conducive to growth and innovation.

One of the most promising opportunities lies in the development of electric vehicles, with several countries already pioneering initiatives in this space. The shift towards sustainable motoring not only aligns with global trends but also addresses local challenges such as air quality and fuel dependency. This focus on green technology could position Africa as a leader in the adoption of environmentally friendly automotive solutions.

Additionally, the rising middle class and increasing urbanisation are expected to drive demand for a diverse range of vehicles, from budget-friendly models to premium cars. This expanding market offers a lucrative opportunity for automakers willing to tailor their offerings to meet the specific needs and preferences of African consumers.

Partnerships and joint ventures between local firms and global automakers are likely to enhance the transfer of knowledge and technology, fostering innovation and boosting production capabilities. As these collaborations flourish, they will contribute to the overall competitiveness of Africa's automotive sector on the global stage.

In summary, the future of Africa's automotive industry holds significant promise, with numerous opportunities for growth and development as the continent continues to embrace modernisation and innovation.

Originally published on CHANGECARS

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