To fully cement the viability and sustainability of the South African auto industry new vehicle sales volumes need to exceed 600 000 units a year according to Andrew Kirby, President and CEO of Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) who made the statement at his annual State of the Motor Industry address recently – at which event Toyota also revealed six new models for launch in the first quarter.
Kirby’s, keynote address titled “The Year That Was”, offered a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities facing South Africa’s motor industry and emphasised the urgent need to boost vehicle sales to attract increased foreign investment. He also stressed the critical role of government policies noting, while recent incentives for battery electric vehicle (BEV) production were a step forward, they remain insufficient to secure the industry’s future.
Andrew Kirby
“South Africa’s automotive sector is grappling with de-industrialisation and a decline in local content, which has dropped below 40% for domestically produced vehicles,” he said. However, he maintained cautious optimism, projecting a 3,7% growth in sales for 2025, reaching 535 000 units, attributing this to potential interest rate cuts and stabilising fuel prices.
Adding to the discussion, Mikel Mabasa, CEO of NAAMSA, highlighted South Africa’s political stability as a rare advantage in the region, expressing hope for what he termed a “year of abundance.”
Emerging Automotive Trends
Kirby identified five major trends reshaping the industry:
- Shifting Consumer Preferences: South Africans are increasingly opting for smaller, more affordable vehicles, with a 2,27% drop in the average passenger car price between 2023 and 2024.- SUV Dominance: SUVs now account for over half of passenger car sales, with the number of available models rising from 114 in 2018 to 166 in 2024.
- Demand for In-Car Technology: Features such as customisation, connectivity and voice control are becoming standard, even in entry-level models.
- Rise of Indian and Chinese Production: Chinese and Indian vehicle imports have surged, making up 37% of local sales in 2023, compared to just 18% in 2018. Meanwhile, locally produced vehicle sales have dropped from 46% to 43%.
- The NEV Transition: The adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles is gaining traction, however, widespread adoption of BEVs in South Africa is unlikely before 2029 without stronger government incentives.
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“The industry’s growth will depend on collaboration, adaptability and a supportive policy framework – paving the way for a brighter future in the years ahead,” he says.
Steel Woes
South Africa's automotive industry has emphasised the urgent need for a robust and sustainable local steel supply chain, citing its critical role in vehicle production, particularly in safety-critical components. Kirby expressed concern about challenges facing the steel sector, including policy issues, logistical inefficiencies, and electricity costs, all of which are contributing to rising uncertainty.
"We cannot rely on scrap metal with impurities, which some local suppliers currently provide. This makes the stability of local steel production absolutely vital for us," he says. "The recent announcement regarding the risks to Newcastle’s operations is very serious for us. It’s encouraging that open discussions are underway, and there may be positive outcomes, but the underlying challenges are clear."
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Three key issues were identified as critical to resolving the steel industry’s struggles:
- Policy Concerns: The decentralisation of scrap metal exports has created an imbalance in the local market, with industries indirectly subsidising this system.- Transport Costs: High logistical expenses are significantly driving up the cost of steel production.
- Electricity Prices: The sector continues to grapple with exorbitant energy costs, which undermine competitiveness.
Steel constitutes approximately 25%–30% of the local content in South African-manufactured vehicles, a figure that remains constant even with the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This highlights the importance of ensuring the sustainability of the steel industry for the future of the automotive sector.
"While we acknowledge the complexity of these challenges, we believe structural issues in the steel sector must be addressed by experts in the field. As an automotive industry, we are committed to supporting and collaborating where we can guide these efforts in the right direction," added Kirby.
A meeting with the CEO of ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) further underscored the importance of increasing local demand for steel. AMSA urged original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to source more steel domestically to help stabilise and grow the sector. Out of the seven OEMs operating in South Africa, four currently source most of their steel locally, with ongoing discussions aimed at encouraging further uptake.
"We need to create an environment where local steel production is competitive and sustainable. Investment in infrastructure and achieving scale is critical, not just for the steel sector but for the broader automotive industry," he says.
Looking back, Kirby said 2024 was anticipated to follow a predictable trajectory, with a softer first half and stronger second half. However, this pattern failed to materialise. While the resolution of the energy crisis – with 300 days of uninterrupted electricity supply provided much-needed economic relief, ongoing challenges in transport and logistics hampered recovery efforts.
“The national elections also played a pivotal role. Although they concluded smoothly, pre-election tensions impacted consumer and business confidence, delaying economic recovery. By year-end, vehicle sales reached 515 000 units, falling short of the forecasted 540 000. The taxi sector’s dramatic 60% contraction, driven by fraud and financing issues, exacerbated the decline. Adjusting for this anomaly, the market would have only dropped by 1,3%.
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“The South African automotive industry remains below pre-pandemic levels, with sales still trailing 2019 figures. For sustainable growth, experts suggest the market must exceed 600 000 annual units. Falling short of this benchmark makes it difficult for the sector to achieve scale and long-term stability,” he says.
Consumer Trends: Affordability and Preference Shifts
Affordability emerged as a dominant theme in 2024. The average selling price of passenger vehicles declined, reflecting a clear shift towards more budget-friendly options, particularly in the B-segment. This trend, driven by rising economic pressures and tighter credit conditions, was also evident in increased used car sales.
SUVs and crossovers continued their meteoric rise in popularity, now accounting for 53% of passenger vehicle sales. The introduction of new models has further bolstered this segment, particularly in premium categories. Consumer preferences have also evolved, with in-car experiences such as advanced infotainment systems, connectivity, and luxury features becoming key purchase drivers, even for mid-range vehicles.
“The automotive sector faces significant structural hurdles. Despite the existence of a national automotive master plan since 2018, little progress has been made in optimising the local market. The failure to implement key elements of the plan has stifled growth, while efforts to integrate regional markets through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement remain incomplete.
“Additionally, the lack of incentives to promote new energy vehicles (NEVs) is hindering South Africa’s ability to attract investment in this area. While a new tax mechanism offers a 35% incentive for capital investment in NEVs, the local market for these vehicles remains negligible, creating a barrier to growth in domestic production and exports.”
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Globally, Chinese and Indian vehicle manufacturers are asserting dominance, with China now accounting for 29% of global vehicle production. This trend is reshaping competition in South Africa, as both nations expand their influence in emerging markets.
At the same time, global conflicts, from the Russia-Ukraine war to Middle East tensions, have added to supply chain disruptions and market volatility. Climate-related challenges have also begun to impact South Africa, further complicating the operating environment.
“To thrive, the South African automotive industry must overcome structural inefficiencies and prioritise market integration and innovation. Affordability will remain a key factor influencing consumer behaviour, alongside a growing preference for SUVs and advanced in-car experiences.
“The sector’s future also hinges on its ability to embrace new energy vehicles, align with global trends, and secure regional trade agreements. With these measures in place, South Africa could unlock the growth potential necessary to surpass the critical 600 000-unit threshold and secure long-term sustainability.”
Vehicle Reveals
The event wasn’t just about industry insights. TSAM’s Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing, Leon Theron, unveiled sic new models including:
- The updated Corolla Cross, featuring a refreshed design and enhanced safety features.- The powerful Fortuner GR-S, now boasting 165kW and 550Nm of torque.
- The refined GR Yaris Upgrade, with an impressive 210kW output and a new eight-speed automatic option.
- The distinctive Hilux Legend 55, showcasing wide-body styling and performance upgrades.
- The enhanced Lexus LX and its newly introduced hybrid variant, the 700h.
- The all-new Lexus GX, a rugged yet luxurious off-roader debuting with an adventurous Overtrail variant.
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