US Tariff Impact on South African Automotive Industry

The recent announcement of a 30% tariff by the United States on goods imported from South Africa has created significant concern within the global motoring industry. This substantial increase in tariffs is expected to have far-reaching implications for South African car manufacturers, exporters, and the broader economy. The auto industry is now preparing for the substantial adjustments that this policy shift will necessitate.

Key stakeholders are paying close attention to how these changes will play out, as the new tariff introduces a host of challenges for South Africa's automotive sector, impacting everything from production costs to market competitiveness.

South Africa's automotive exports to the United States have been a crucial component of the country's export portfolio. In fact, the export of vehicles and parts from South Africa to the US is valued at over $2-billion. The introduction of the tariff is poised to disrupt this flow significantly. Notably, automobile exports accounted for 64% of South Africa's exports under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2024. With such a substantial reliance on the American market, the potential impact of the tariff cannot be underestimated.

Industry experts and economists are weighing in on the situation. Some predict a decrease in South African vehicle exports to the US, which could lead to surplus inventory and financial losses for manufacturers. Additionally, South African cars could become less competitive in the US market due to increased costs, further exacerbating the situation.

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The new tariff brings numerous difficulties for South African car manufacturers. An immediate concern is the rise in production costs, which stems from higher expenses for raw materials and components. This escalation in costs could lead to increased vehicle prices, potentially dampening demand in both domestic and international markets.

Manufacturers might need to reconsider their production strategies to stay competitive. This could include relocating manufacturing to countries with more favorable trade terms or investing in technologies that cut costs. However, such shifts require significant time and resources, adding to the industry's existing challenges.

Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding international trade relations could make it harder for manufacturers to plan for the future. The industry may face financial strain and operational disruptions as it navigates these complex issues.

Effects on the South African Economy

The broader South African economy is poised to experience significant repercussions due to the new US tariff. The automotive industry is not only a major contributor to South Africa's GDP but also a substantial employer, so a decline in exports could trigger widespread economic consequences. Potential job losses in the auto industry are a serious concern, as reduced production and export volumes may compel manufacturers to downsize their workforce.

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Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations with the US might dampen investor confidence in South Africa's automotive sector. This could lead to reduced investment, stalling the industry's growth and innovation. Companies may also face increased financial strain, making it harder to maintain operations and fund new projects.

The knock-on effects could extend to related industries, such as suppliers and logistics providers, amplifying the economic impact. Overall, the new tariff introduces a layer of complexity that the South African economy will need to navigate carefully, affecting everything from employment rates to future investment opportunities.

Responses from Industry Stakeholders

Industry stakeholders are actively addressing the tariff announcement, with varied reactions across the sector. Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers, emphasized the need for more details, stating that the association will await further information on the specific components affected by the tariff proclamation.

Government officials and industry leaders are expected to pursue diplomatic discussions to negotiate the tariff's terms with the US, aiming for potential exemptions or revisions. Some stakeholders are urging the South African government to strengthen trade agreements with other countries to offset the impact of the US tariff.

There is also a call for increased investment in domestic technologies and alternative markets to reduce dependency on US exports. This multi-pronged approach could help mitigate some of the tariff's adverse effects on the South African automotive sector.

Chairperson of the federal council of the Democratic Alliance (DA), Helen Zille says the global tariffs unleashed by US President Donald Trump spell disaster for South Africa, amid the souring bilateral relationship.

“What can one say? It is going to be disastrous for our automotive industry in particular if they have 30%  tariffs slapped on our motor vehicles that are made in the facilities of Pretoria and Nelson Mandela Bay. Obviously, it is going to be terrible for us,” she said.

“The government won't learn. There is tension between the ANC and just about every democracy in the world, and there is certainly profound tension between the ANC and democrats in South Africa.”

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In the long run, South African car manufacturers will need to rethink their strategies to adapt to the new trade environment. They might start exploring untapped markets and diversifying their export destinations to reduce their reliance on the US This could involve strengthening trade relations with other countries and regions, potentially opening new avenues for growth. 

Additionally, investing in advanced manufacturing technologies and improving efficiencies could help mitigate the increased production costs imposed by the tariff. Collaborations with local and international partners could further enhance competitiveness and innovation within the industry. The South African auto industry's ability to navigate these changes will significantly influence its future trajectory.

The 30% US tariff on South African goods presents substantial challenges for the nation's automotive sector. The immediate consequences include a rise in production costs and potential job reductions, putting significant pressure on manufacturers to adapt swiftly.

Over the long term, the industry will likely need to diversify its export markets to lessen dependence on the American market. This shift could open new opportunities but will also require strategic investments in technology and efficiency improvements.

Stakeholders, including government officials and industry leaders, are working on responses to mitigate these impacts. Efforts are underway to negotiate better trade terms with the US and strengthen trade agreements with other countries. Additionally, there's a push for increased investment in domestic capabilities to reduce external dependencies.

The resilience of South African car manufacturers will be critical in navigating these changes. By exploring new markets and investing in advanced manufacturing technologies, the industry can adapt to the evolving trade landscape. While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the potential for innovation and growth remains. The South African automotive sector's ability to pivot and respond strategically to these new conditions will significantly influence its long-term success and stability.

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BYD Expands EV Lineup with Innovative Models for South Africa

Global new energy vehicle manufacturer BYD has unveiled three models — the Shark 6, Sealion 6 and Sealion 7 — in South Africa, broadening its local lineup to six vehicles. The launch underscores the brand’s focus on delivering tailored, sustainable transport solutions amid growing demand for efficient mobility options.

Steve Chang, Managing Director of BYD Auto SA, expressed enthusiasm about the expansion: “South African drivers now have access to advanced technology that prioritises efficiency and adaptability. These models align with our vision of combining innovation with practicality, ensuring a greener future without compromising performance.”

The introduction follows the 2023 arrivals of the Atto 3 compact SUV, Dolphin hatchback, and Seal sedan. The latest additions complete BYD’s dual strategy of offering both plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs), catering to diverse driving needs.

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BYD Shark 6
Marking BYD’s debut in South Africa’s pick-up segment, the Shark 6 pairs rugged capability with hybrid efficiency. Built on the DMO Super Hybrid Off-road Platform, the model merges off-road durability with SUV-like comfort.

A dedicated rear-drive powertrain, combined with a 1,5-litre rurbo engine and EHS electric hybrid system, generates over 320 kW — akin to a conventional 4,0-litre V8 — while accelerating from 0-100 km/h in 5,7 seconds. Intelligent electric all-wheel drive adjusts torque distribution in real time, optimising traction across varied terrains.

The plug-in hybrid offers a combined WLTP range of 670 km, including 85 km in pure electric mode. Even when relying solely on fuel, consumption remains at 9,6 l/100 km. Safety features include BYD’s Blade Battery, integrated via CTC technology to enhance structural rigidity by 22%, alongside a high-strength steel frame for added protection.

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BYD Sealion 6

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Designed for families, the Sealion 6 plug-in hybrid SUV balances power and practicality. Its Super DM-i technology enables seamless transitions between electric and hybrid modes, with an all-wheel-drive variant achieving 0-100 km/h in 5,9 seconds (238 kW power, 550 Nm torque). The front-wheel-drive model prioritises efficiency at 5,5 l/100 km, offering ranges of 1 080 km (FWD) and 870 km (AWD).

Tech highlights include a 15,6-inch adaptive infotainment screen, voice control and a head-up display projecting real-time driving data. The cabin’s intuitive layout aims to enhance connectivity, making it suited for both urban errands and cross-country journeys.

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BYD Sealion 7

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As BYD’s fourth pure EV in South Africa, the Sealion 7 sport-coupé SUV combines rapid acceleration with luxury. Its rear motor — featuring dual V-shape magnets and a 92% slot-fill rate — spins at up to 23 000 r/min, enabling a 0-100 km/h sprint of 4,5 seconds (Performance edition) or 6,7 seconds (Premium edition). The 82,56 kWh Blade Battery delivers up to 482 km (WLTP), while 150 kW DC fast-charging restores 20%-80% capacity in 30 minutes.

Cell-to-Body (CTB) architecture maximises cabin space, offering 500 litres rear and 58 litres front storage. A rotating 15,6-inch touchscreen, compatibility with Android Auto and Apple CarPlay, and a 12-speaker Dynaudio system elevate in-car entertainment.

In a brief shimmy around a Sandton car park in the car, what really stood out besides the blissful acceleration and seemingly endless power was the massive rear seat space that still left room in the luggage department for more than a weekend getaway.

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The new models will debut across eight BYD dealerships in South Africa, with plans to expand sales and service networks. Each vehicle includes tailored charging solutions, such as a 7 kW wall box and portable charger for the Sealion 7.

Established in 1995, BYD has evolved from a battery producer to a global leader in renewables and transport, operating in over 400 cities worldwide. Its automotive division, BYD Auto, specialises in EVs and PHEVs, pioneering technologies like the Blade Battery and CTB construction. The firm ceased production of internal combustion engines in 2022, focusing solely on zero-emission mobility.

Pricing:

Sealion 7 Premium FWD           R1 099 900

Sealion 7 Performance AWD     R1 299 900

Sealion 6 Comfort FWD             R   639 900

Sealion 6 Dynamic FWD            R   689 900

Sealion 6 Premium AWD           R   789 900

Shark 6                                     R   959 900

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Speed up AfCFTA and industrialise

Zimbabwe’s Finance, Economic Development, and Investment Promotion Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube, has underscored the urgency of advancing industrialisation and expanding Special Economic Zones (SEZs) across Africa to accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Speaking at the 57th Session of the Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development in Addis Ababa, Ncube positioned these measures as vital for unlocking the bloc’s economic potential.

Zimbabwe, which ratified the AfCFTA agreement in May 2019, is among the early adopters of the initiative designed to create a unified continental market. The pact, established in 2018, seeks to dismantle trade barriers, harmonise regulations and boost intra-African commerce, which currently lags behind other regions. With a population of 1,4-billion and a collective GDP exceeding $3,4-trillion, the AfCFTA could elevate intra-African trade by 45% by 2045 — if infrastructural and regulatory challenges are resolved.

During his address, Ncube outlined key priorities drawn from discussions with the Committee of Experts. Strengthening regional value chains in agriculture, manufacturing, and services was highlighted as a priority to reduce reliance on raw commodity exports.

“Enhancing trade infrastructure and addressing non-tariff barriers will be central to maximising value addition,” he said, pointing to the need for harmonised regulations and improved access to finance.

The outgoing conference chair echoed these sentiments, advocating for innovative financing mechanisms such as blended finance and thematic bonds to support businesses. Digital transformation was also flagged as a catalyst for growth. Ncube stressed that integrating e-commerce platforms, digital trade tools, and fintech solution into the AfCFTA framework could lower transaction costs and broaden market access.

Zimbabwe’s Automotive Sector Opportunity
Zimbabwe’s recent approval of provisional tariff concessions by the AfCFTA Secretariat positions it to begin preferential trading under the agreement. This milestone aligns with the nation’s ambitions to leverage its mineral wealth, particularly in lithium and steel, to participate in regional value chains.

A recent study by Afreximbank, the AfCFTA Secretariat, and the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers identified several Zimbabwean firms — including Chloride Zimbabwe and United Springs — as potential contributors to Africa’s automotive sector.

With global demand for electric vehicles rising, Zimbabwe’s lithium reserves, critical for battery production, could see it emerge as a hub for component manufacturing. Ncube noted that such opportunities align with broader efforts to diversify economies and reduce dependency on volatile commodity markets.

As South Africa assumes the G20 presidency, Ncube urged African leaders to seize the platform to advocate for reforms in global financial architecture. He called for inclusive frameworks to improve access to climate finance and support sustainable development goals.

“Green industrialisation must be prioritised,” he added, emphasising the potential for renewable energy investments and climate-resilient trade policies to position Africa as a leader in sustainable growth.

While progress on the AfCFTA advances, concerns linger over external trade pressures. In South Africa, automotive sector stakeholders convened at the National Union of Metalworkers’ Bargaining Conference to discuss the potential fallout from losing access to the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Toyota CEO Andrew Kirby warned that exclusion from AGOA could cost the company 7% of its manufacturing output, underscoring the fragility of export-dependent industries.

Lada Iskkra

Meanwhile, Russian automaker AvtoVAZ announced plans to expand into Nigeria, targeting West Africa’s largest economy with a spare parts hub in Lagos by 2025. The firm, known for its Lada vehicles, is also exploring partnerships to establish a compressed natural gas conversion plant, aligning with Nigeria’s push for alternative energy solutions. With annual vehicle demand in Nigeria estimated at 720 000 units — far outstripping local production of 14 000 — the move signals growing international interest in Africa’s underdeveloped automotive markets.

As the ministerial conference closed, Ncube urged delegates to translate dialogue into tangible policies. “Macro-economic stability, debt management, and domestic resource mobilisation are non-negotiable for building investor confidence,” he asserted, stressing the need for coordinated national and regional strategies.

The outgoing chair reinforced this call, noting, “This conference must drive concrete commitments—not just aspirations—to realise Africa’s economic transformation.” With Zimbabwe poised to commence AfCFTA trading and regional partnerships gaining momentum, the bloc’s ability to address structural hurdles will determine whether its ambitious vision translates into equitable prosperity.

As global automakers and African industries navigate shifting trade dynamics, the continent’s path to industrialisation remains a complex yet pivotal endeavour—one requiring collaboration, innovation, and an unwavering focus on sustainable growth.

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From under to on top

Eurico Stork’s journey in the transport industry began not behind the wheel, but under the bonnet. Starting as an apprentice truck technician at Hino Pietermaritzburg in 2014, he swiftly climbed the ranks, qualifying and stepping into a workshop supervisor role within two years.

But ambition had other plans. By 2019, Stork traded his wrench for entrepreneurship, launching JKK Transport with a single Hino 700 financed through Hino Financial Services.

Fast-forward five years, and the 34-year-old now helms two companies — JKK Transport and EJS Transport — with a combined fleet of 17 trucks. Thirteen are Hino models, including 11 Hino 700s acquired from his former employer, where he maintains a close partnership with New Vehicle Sales Manager Vivek Orie.

The remaining four trucks in his fleet come from rival brands, but Stork’s loyalty to Hino remains clear: all 13 Hino vehicles are serviced exclusively at Hino Pietermaritzburg, backed by extended warranties and genuine parts.

“Regular dealer servicing isn’t optional for me—it’s peace of mind,” Stork emphasised. “Downtime is the enemy in this business, so sticking to Hino’s protocols keeps my trucks running smoothly.”

Specialising in perishable goods on long-haul routes like Durban-Johannesburg and Cape Town, his tautliner-equipped fleet caters to a handful of dedicated clients. Stork credits his success to both pragmatism and mentorship. “Early on, seasoned fleet owners in Pietermaritzburg shared invaluable advice,” he noted. “That guidance, paired with prioritising maintenance and ROI, has been key.”

Beyond logistics, Stork takes pride in his role as a job creator. Since 2021, his workforce has ballooned from two employees to 25 — a figure he aims to grow further. “Starting with a technical passion and ending up here? It’s surreal,” he reflected. “But the real win is building something that sustains families.”

With Hino Pietermaritzburg still servicing his trucks and Orie managing his accounts, Stork’s story circles back to where it began—proving that sometimes, the road to growth starts with a trusted pit stop.

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Volvo Trucks expands electric footprint

Volvo Trucks South Africa has handed over two battery-electric FH 6x4 truck tractors to Vector Logistics, a key player in the country’s cold chain sector, marking a significant step in decarbonising heavy-duty transport. The vehicles form the backbone of Vector’s inaugural fully electric fleet, featuring e-axle trailers and electrified refrigeration systems designed to achieve net-zero operational emissions.

With a combined gross weight of 48,6 tonnes, the trucks boast three electric motors generating 496 kW and 2 400 Nm of torque, powered by six batteries offering 540 kW/h capacity. Adapted with a sleeper cab accommodating three seats, the models will handle local distribution in Gauteng and Cape Town. Vector has installed high-speed DC charging stations at depots, enabling a 200 km-300 km range per charge — sufficient for daily urban routes.

Waldemar Christensen, Volvo Trucks South Africa’s Managing Director, highlighted the partnership’s alignment on sustainability: “Vector’s electrification drive mirrors our commitment to innovation. Together, we’re redefining logistics for a cleaner future.”

Tailored through collaboration with Volvo, the solution addresses Vector’s specific needs, from route efficiency to battery management. Christensen emphasised the focus on “maximising uptime and productivity,” integral for cold chain operations where reliability is critical.

Eric Parry, Volvo’s Sustainable Solutions Manager, noted the trucks’ quieter performance as a boon for urban deliveries: “Imagine supermarkets or restaurants — reduced noise means fewer disruptions.” Enhanced manoeuvrability, courtesy of Volvo Dynamic Steering, and seamless power delivery in stop-start traffic further suit metro environments.

Despite South Africa’s grid challenges, Parry stressed strategic planning: “Charging can align with schedules, even during load-shedding. Returning to depots simplifies energy management, offering cost certainty.”

Vector’s drivers have undergone specialised training to optimise electric vehicle performance, with further sessions planned. The trucks match Volvo’s diesel safety standards, incorporating identical crash protections and systems.

As global carbon regulations tighten, electric fleets gain traction for enabling off-peak deliveries and accessing restricted zones. Volvo’s electric range — including FH, FM, and FMX models — cater to diverse configurations, supporting industries aiming to cut emissions.

“Environmental responsibility has always driven us,” added Christensen. “Electrifying transport isn’t just a goal — it’s our legacy.”

With this move, Vector Logistics joins a growing cohort of firms leveraging electrification to meet climate targets while enhancing urban air quality and operational efficiency. As night-time deliveries and silent running become assets, the shift signals a charged future for South African logistics.

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Isuzu navigates African growth amid global headwinds

While global automotive markets grapple with electric vehicle transitions and supply chain turbulence, Isuzu Motors South Africa is charting a different course — one anchored in diesel-powered pragmatism and intra-African ambition.

The company’s recent strategy reveals reveal a brand doubling down on its commercial vehicle stronghold while cautiously eyeing continental expansion, even as South Africa’s automotive sector faces existential pressures.

Local Leadership in a Shifting Market
Isuzu’s dominance in South Africa’s commercial vehicle segment remains unshaken, with 12 consecutive years as medium/heavy truck market leader. Despite a 3% dip in national new vehicle sales for 2023, the brand maintained an 18,5% share in light commercial vehicles and 28% in trucks — a resilience executives attribute to fleet operators prioritising total lifecycle costs over flashy tech.

“We’re a truck company that also sells bakkies,” remarked CEO Billy Tom during a recent briefing, referencing commercial vehicles’ 59% contribution to global revenues. This focus has proven strategic: while passenger vehicle imports now dominate 44% of South Africa’s market (34% from India, 10% China), Isuzu’s truck-centric portfolio insulates it from the worst of this consumer shift.

The African Opportunity Puzzle
Africa accounts for just 9% of Isuzu’s global sales but represents its fastest-growing region. The company now ships 25% of its Port Elizabeth (Gqeberha) plant output to neighbouring states, with plans to deepen ties in East and West Africa. Yet barriers persist:

- Trade Tangles: A 76-day coffee shipment from Kenya to Ivory Coast exemplifies intracontinental logistics hurdles. Only 15% of South Africa’s automotive exports stay within Africa — 75% of which go to immediate neighbours.
- Assembly Gaps: While Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria emerge as regional hubs, South Africa’s share of continental vehicle production has slid from 63% (2020) to 53% today.

Tom advocates for shared assembly plants: “Why can’t multiple manufacturers use combined facilities, like India’s small-car hubs?” This approach already underpins Isuzu’s X-Rider bakkie — a budget model partially assembled locally using imported kits.

EVs vs. Energy Transition Realities
While testing electric trucks in Norway and the UK, Isuzu’s African strategy prioritises transitional fuels:

- Dual-Fuel Diesel/CNG Trucks: Operational for two years in SA, offering 20%-30% emissions cuts without infrastructure overhauls.
- Euro 5 Diesel: Simplified after-treatment systems avoiding AdBlue dependency.
- Dual Fuel: Locally developed gas-diesel blend gaining traction in logistics fleets.

“Africa can’t be rushed into EVs,” he says. “Our data shows hybrids account for 85% of SA’s 3% ‘new energy’ vehicle uptake — customers want compromise, not revolution.”

Battling the Import Wave
The real threat comes from Asian imports. Indian-built vehicles now claim 34% of SA’s market (up from 17% in 2018), while Chinese brands grab 10%. Isuzu responds with:

- Localised Production: 75% of Port Elizabeth’s output stays in Southern Africa.
- Tactical Imports: Using export credits to bring niche models like the D-Max-based MU-X SUV.
- Skills Investment: Maintaining 116 000 automotive jobs through technical training programmes.

Looking North
Isuzu’s endgame hinges on Africa’s logistics evolution. Tom cites stalled progress on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): “We need dedicated cargo corridors — not passenger planes doubling as freight carriers.”

Recent tests of regional assembly in Zambia and Mozambique aim to reduce dependency on SA’s strained ports.

As the company marks 60 years of truck manufacturing in South Africa, its path forward balances gritty realism with guarded optimism. In a market where 44% of vehicles sold are imported, Isuzu’s truck-led pragmatism may yet prove the template for African industrial survival.

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Africa Automotive - All eyes on Algeria for IATF2025

Algiers is set to become the epicentre of Africa’s automotive industry as it hosts the Africa Automotive Show, a flagship event at the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) 2025. From September 4 to 10, 2025, the Democratic People’s Republic of Algeria will welcome industry leaders, innovators and policymakers to what promises to be a transformative gathering for the continent’s automotive sector.

Organised by Afreximbank, the African Union, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, the event builds on the momentum of IATF 2023 in Cairo, where trade deals worth a staggering $43,8-billion were sealed, attracting more than 28 000 visitors and 1 939 exhibitors.

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The Africa Automotive Show is more than just an exhibition; it’s a strategic platform designed to accelerate the growth of Africa’s automotive industry. With intra-African trade currently accounting for just 14% of the continent’s global trade, the event aims to boost collaboration, innovation and investment in a sector that is increasingly seen as a cornerstone of Africa’s economic future.

Africa’s automotive potential is no longer a distant dream but a tangible reality. The continent is fast becoming a hub for both local and international players, with the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) leading the charge.

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling, AAAM’s newly appointed CEO, describes the moment as pivotal: “Our goal is to elevate the African market demand to between three and five million units by 2035,” she says. “This is a significant leap from where we are today, but it’s achievable with the right collaboration and investment.”

Victoria Backhaus-Jerling

The Africa Automotive Show will feature a two-day forum alongside a dedicated exhibition, creating a space for dialogue, partnership and progress. The event will bring together stakeholders from across the automotive value chain, including raw material suppliers, manufacturers, dealers and financial partners. It will also serve as a platform to showcase Africa’s achievements in the sector while laying the groundwork for future growth.

The 2023 edition of IATF in Cairo set a high bar, demonstrating the power of collaboration and the potential of intra-African trade. The Africa Automotive Show at IATF 2025 aims to build on this success, with a particular focus on advancing the continental automotive strategy approved by AfCFTA member states earlier this year.

This strategy, developed with input from AAAM, Afreximbank, and the AfCFTA Secretariat, aims to strengthen regional supply chains, boost local manufacturing, and promote African-made solutions.

One of the key challenges facing the industry is the dominance of used vehicle imports, which currently account for a significant portion of Africa’s automotive market.

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Backhaus-Jerling emphasises the need for a phased approach to reducing these imports. “The volume of used vehicles dilutes the opportunity for local manufacturing and after-sales services,” she explains. “By investing in local production, we can create jobs, empower communities, and build a resilient intra-African supply chain.”

As the host nation, Algeria is poised to play a leading role in shaping the future of Africa’s automotive industry. The country has recently implemented policy reforms to attract investment and boost local manufacturing. Major assembly plants, such as those operated by Stellantis, have already been established, signalling Algeria’s commitment to driving industrialisation and inspiring similar developments across the continent.

Algeria’s strategic location and growing infrastructure make it an ideal host for the Africa Automotive Show. The event will not only showcase the country’s progress but also highlight its potential as a key player in Africa’s automotive ecosystem.

The Africa Automotive Show is more than just a trade event; it’s a gateway to an integrated African market of some 1,3-billion people and a combined GDP exceeding $3,5-trillion. Enabled by the AfCFTA, this market represents a wealth of opportunities for industry players, from raw material suppliers and manufacturers to dealers and aftermarket providers.

Andrew Binning, Director of the Africa Automotive Show, describes the event as the ultimate platform for industry stakeholders. “Our vision is to unite players from every corner of Africa and beyond,” he says. “This is where the future of Africa’s automotive industry will be shaped.”

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The Africa Automotive Show will feature a diverse range of exhibitors, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), national assemblers and value chain partners. The accompanying Automotive Forum will bring together thought leaders, global partners, and heads of state to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the industry.

By fostering collaboration, innovation, and investment, the show has the potential to transform the continent’s automotive landscape, creating jobs, boosting economies, and improving mobility for millions of people.

In the words of Victoria Backhaus-Jerling: “This is more than an event; it’s a catalyst for change. Together, we can build an automotive industry that reflects Africa’s resilience, creativity, and entrepreneurial spirit.”

This article first appeared on CHANGECARS

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Revealed: The True Numbers Behind South Africa's Car Industry in 2025

South Africa's roads now have about 12-million vehicles. This remarkable figure highlights the country's vehicle growth from 10.3 million registered vehicles in 2020.

The automotive sector reveals some intriguing patterns. Only 2,4-million vehicles have financing, while 3-million carry insurance. The industry generates 24-million sales leads yearly but converts these into just 580 000 vehicle sales. New vehicles account for 180 000 sales and used vehicles make up 400 000 of the total.

January 2025 brought encouraging news with vehicle sales hitting 46 400 units - a 10,4% jump from December 2024. This analysis will dive into these numbers deeply. We'll look at market trends and fleet management challenges to give you a detailed picture of South Africa's evolving automotive sector.

South Africa's automotive sector continues to thrive in early 2025 as growth spreads through many segments.

Total Vehicle Population Statistics 2025

The automotive industry plays a vital role in South Africa's economy and factors in 4.9% of the GDP (2,9% manufacturing and ,02% retail). South Africa ranks as the 22nd largest vehicle producer worldwide with a 0,65% share of global vehicle production. The country's automotive manufacturing makes up 21,7% of domestic manufacturing output.

New Vehicle Sales Growth Trends

January 2025 started strong as the total domestic new vehicle sales reached 46 398 units. This represents a rise of 4 375 units or 10,4% compared to January 2024. The passenger car segment performed well with 34 530 units, an 18,3% jump from the previous year. On top of that, car rental sales made up 19.,% of new passenger vehicle sales.

AI generated image

Regional Market Distribution

The market reveals interesting regional patterns. SADC countries lead South Africa's export market. Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Zambia have become the main export destinations – Kenya and Ghana now just need more South African vehicles.

The domestic market shows new trends in import sources. India's share of vehicle imports grew from 11% in 2012 to 28% in 2022 . Chinese manufacturers have gained ground too, and their market share expanded from 1% to 11% between 2010 and 2022. They achieved an annual growth rate of 7.2%.

Credit Application Success Rates

The credit market of 2025 shows mixed signals. Vehicle loan originations grew 1,1% in Q3 2024, and average new account amounts increased by 2,4%. The total number of active Vehicle Asset Finance (VAF) accounts stands steady at 2,1-million. The market remains strong as 80% of new cars and over 50% of used cars secure financing.

Alternative Financing Options

The changing market has led to new financing solutions for #carbuyers:

- South African roads now have 25 000 vehicles under long-term rentals and subscriptions
- Lease agreements come with flexible terms and optional end-of-term purchase rights
- Rent-to-buy models have become popular alternatives to traditional financing

The financing world shows a clear generational change. Gen Z's share of new vehicle loans has grown from 13,7% to 16,6%. Millennials lead the pack with 40% of new vehicle purchase. Q2 2024 saw the average loan value reach R400 000, showing how financial pressures continue to shape #carlifestyle choices.

Fleet Management Transformation #fleetmanagement

South African fleet managers are moving faster toward digital transformation, and 91% plan to increase their investment in digital fleet technologies over the next five years.

The fleet management sector continues to show resilient growth, and active systems should reach 3,8-million units by 2028. Five domestic players control 70% of the market share. January 2025's commercial vehicle sales demonstrate this growth, with medium trucks showing an 11.6% increase.

Digital Fleet Solutions Impact

AI leads the state-of-the-art fleet solutions, with 23% of fleet managers already using AI solutions. These managers expect AI adoption to reach 58% within the next five years. AI technology shows its effects in several areas:

- 62% expect AI to optimize route planning
- 56% anticipate improved driver safety
- 55% look forward to better predictive maintenance

Operational Cost Trends

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) remains crucial in fleet management decisions. Fleet expenses split between fixed and variable costs, with maintenance and fuel making up the largest variable expenses. Fleet managers now emphasize proactive maintenance strategies to reduce unplanned downtime and extend vehicle lifespans.

Fleet management software makes real-time expense tracking and TCO calculation possible. IoT sensors monitor vital components and detect potential problems early. This comprehensive strategy helps avoid expensive repairs while keeping optimal fleet availability.

South Africa's e-commerce market has reached R71-billion in 2023, which has led to a surge in the logistics sector's vehicle needs. This represents a 29% growth from the previous year.

The commercial vehicles market continues to expand strongly. Fastway Couriers has grown their delivery fleet by 132% in Gauteng alone in the last decade. The manufacturing segment leads as the fastest-growing sector in the South African freight and logistics market and projects a growth rate of 7% during 2024-2029.

These key factors shape delivery vehicle sales:

- Increased urbanization and e-commerce volumes
- Implementation of route optimization technologies
- Growing need for electric and hybrid commercial vehicles
- Rising need for urban delivery solutions

E-commerce Impact on Fleet Requirements

Online retail sector's expansion reshapes fleet requirements completely . Road transport now handles 85% of all exports to ports or airports. The wholesale and retail trade segment leads the freight and logistics market with a 39% market share in 2024.

E-commerce growth creates unique challenges for delivery fleets. Fuel costs and security expenses affect operational efficiency substantially. Last-mile delivery costs range between R90 to R900 per package. This has led companies to explore innovative solutions like aggregator platforms and crowdsourced delivery services.

Rhenus South Africa shows how the logistics industry adapts through expansion. They opened a 3 000 square meter warehouse near Pretoria and a 2 000 square meter facility in East London. M24 Logistics revealed a 30 000 square meter warehouse in Montague Gardens. These developments show how the sector responds to growing e-commerce needs.

South Africa's automotive sector continues to evolve rapidly. Vehicle financing companies now offer groundbreaking options such as long-term rentals and subscription models that match what customers just need. Fleet managers lead the way in digital advancement, and 91% of them plan to invest more in technology over the next five years.

E-commerce growth propels the logistics sector forward, especially when you have rising delivery vehicle demands. The R71-billion e-commerce market value and expanding warehouses in major cities reflect these economic changes.

Regional trends paint a clear picture. SADC countries continue as key export partners while India and China increase their vehicle imports to the domestic market. These developments create a more diverse and competitive automotive landscape.

The country ranks as the world's 22nd largest vehicle producer and contributes 4,9% to the GDP. This shows the automotive sector's crucial role in the national economy. The industry's flexibility and expansion point to a bright future through 2025 and beyond.

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Meet South Africa’s Youngest Long-Haul Fleet Owner – And She’s Driving Change

Durban, South Africa – At just 21 years old, Kiara Baijnath has already achieved what many in the trucking industry spend decades working towards. She’s the proud owner of five brand-new Volvo FH extra heavy trucks, each decked out in bold pink branding and matching double-link trailers. These eye-catching vehicles mark the launch of HerWay Logistics, Baijnath’s new long-haul transport company set to shake up the male-dominated industry.

Her passion for trucking was sparked at an early age, riding alongside her grandfather in his old truck as he delivered crops to the local farmer’s market. “Even back then, I told him that one day I wanted to drive my own truck,” she recalls.

Kiara Baijnath (centre) takes ownership of five brand-new FH extra heavy trucks, presented by Herman Steyn, Volvo Trucks Sales Executive (left) and Anders Friberg, Director of New Truck Sales at Volvo Trucks South Africa (right). 

That dream never faded. After finishing school, Baijnath began crafting a business plan focused on establishing a female-led haulage operation that would train and employ women drivers. With the backing of her supportive parents—who helped her with initial funding—she approached Volvo Trucks in Durban, expecting a tough sell.

“I was bracing myself for rejection, but to my surprise, the team was just as excited as I was,” she says. “They immediately started brainstorming and setting up timelines, which only fuelled my own enthusiasm.”

Her bold vision soon grew bigger, with a fleet of high-tech trucks that could compete for major contracts from day one. HerWay Logistics’ vehicles come equipped with Volvo Connect, a fleet management system that allows her to monitor everything from mechanical performance to driver behaviour remotely.

Herman Steyn, Sales Executive at Volvo Trucks Durban, explains, “Volvo Connect helps operators run a more efficient and profitable transport business. It’s a perfect match for forward-thinking entrepreneurs like Kiara.”

Anders Friberg, Volvo Trucks South Africa’s Director of New Truck Sales, agrees. “The new generation of fleet owners understand the power of technology in trucking. Kiara, for example, has already calculated that driving just a little more efficiently—saving 400 metres per litre—could cut fuel costs by R100,000 per truck per year. That’s the kind of smart thinking we love to see.”

HerWay Logistics officially hits the road on 1st February, starting with long-haul deliveries between Durban and Johannesburg, one of South Africa’s busiest routes. But Baijnath and her team have even bigger plans, aiming to expand into neighbouring countries with the support of Volvo Trucks’ service network across sub-Saharan Africa.

“We’ve structured our business and service agreements to allow cross-border operations,” she explains. “Beyond that, we’ll be working on our driver-training programme. Women’s empowerment and road safety are non-negotiable for us.”

And those bright pink trucks? They won’t just stand out on the road; they’ll serve as a statement. “They’ll be hard to miss, and that’s the point,” Baijnath says. “We want people to know we’re here, we’re serious, and we’re doing things differently.”

HerWay Logistics’ headquarters is based in Prospecton, Durban, with plans to establish depots across South Africa as the business grows. With its fresh approach and strong backing, it’s clear that this young entrepreneur is set to drive change in more ways than one.

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Auto industry needs to gear up says Toyota boss

To fully cement the viability and sustainability of the South African auto industry new vehicle sales volumes need to exceed 600 000 units a year according to Andrew Kirby, President and CEO of Toyota South Africa Motors (TSAM) who made the statement at his annual State of the Motor Industry address recently – at which event Toyota also revealed six new models for launch in the first quarter.

Kirby’s, keynote address titled “The Year That Was”, offered a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities facing South Africa’s motor industry and emphasised the urgent need to boost vehicle sales to attract increased foreign investment. He also stressed the critical role of government policies noting, while recent incentives for battery electric vehicle (BEV) production were a step forward, they remain insufficient to secure the industry’s future.

Andrew Kirby

“South Africa’s automotive sector is grappling with de-industrialisation and a decline in local content, which has dropped below 40% for domestically produced vehicles,” he said. However, he maintained cautious optimism, projecting a 3,7% growth in sales for 2025, reaching 535 000 units, attributing this to potential interest rate cuts and stabilising fuel prices.

Adding to the discussion, Mikel Mabasa, CEO of NAAMSA, highlighted South Africa’s political stability as a rare advantage in the region, expressing hope for what he termed a “year of abundance.”

Emerging Automotive Trends

Kirby identified five major trends reshaping the industry:

- Shifting Consumer Preferences: South Africans are increasingly opting for smaller, more affordable vehicles, with a 2,27% drop in the average passenger car price between 2023 and 2024.
- SUV Dominance: SUVs now account for over half of passenger car sales, with the number of available models rising from 114 in 2018 to 166 in 2024.
- Demand for In-Car Technology: Features such as customisation, connectivity and voice control are becoming standard, even in entry-level models.
- Rise of Indian and Chinese Production: Chinese and Indian vehicle imports have surged, making up 37% of local sales in 2023, compared to just 18% in 2018. Meanwhile, locally produced vehicle sales have dropped from 46% to 43%.
- The NEV Transition: The adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles is gaining traction, however, widespread adoption of BEVs in South Africa is unlikely before 2029 without stronger government incentives.

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“The industry’s growth will depend on collaboration, adaptability and a supportive policy framework – paving the way for a brighter future in the years ahead,” he says.

Steel Woes

South Africa's automotive industry has emphasised the urgent need for a robust and sustainable local steel supply chain, citing its critical role in vehicle production, particularly in safety-critical components. Kirby expressed concern about challenges facing the steel sector, including policy issues, logistical inefficiencies, and electricity costs, all of which are contributing to rising uncertainty.

"We cannot rely on scrap metal with impurities, which some local suppliers currently provide. This makes the stability of local steel production absolutely vital for us," he says. "The recent announcement regarding the risks to Newcastle’s operations is very serious for us. It’s encouraging that open discussions are underway, and there may be positive outcomes, but the underlying challenges are clear."

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Three key issues were identified as critical to resolving the steel industry’s struggles:

- Policy Concerns: The decentralisation of scrap metal exports has created an imbalance in the local market, with industries indirectly subsidising this system.
- Transport Costs: High logistical expenses are significantly driving up the cost of steel production.
- Electricity Prices: The sector continues to grapple with exorbitant energy costs, which undermine competitiveness.

Steel constitutes approximately 25%–30% of the local content in South African-manufactured vehicles, a figure that remains constant even with the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This highlights the importance of ensuring the sustainability of the steel industry for the future of the automotive sector.

"While we acknowledge the complexity of these challenges, we believe structural issues in the steel sector must be addressed by experts in the field. As an automotive industry, we are committed to supporting and collaborating where we can guide these efforts in the right direction," added Kirby.

A meeting with the CEO of ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) further underscored the importance of increasing local demand for steel. AMSA urged original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to source more steel domestically to help stabilise and grow the sector. Out of the seven OEMs operating in South Africa, four currently source most of their steel locally, with ongoing discussions aimed at encouraging further uptake.

"We need to create an environment where local steel production is competitive and sustainable. Investment in infrastructure and achieving scale is critical, not just for the steel sector but for the broader automotive industry," he says.

Looking back, Kirby said 2024 was anticipated to follow a predictable trajectory, with a softer first half and stronger second half. However, this pattern failed to materialise. While the resolution of the energy crisis – with 300 days of uninterrupted electricity supply provided much-needed economic relief, ongoing challenges in transport and logistics hampered recovery efforts.

“The national elections also played a pivotal role. Although they concluded smoothly, pre-election tensions impacted consumer and business confidence, delaying economic recovery. By year-end, vehicle sales reached 515 000 units, falling short of the forecasted 540 000. The taxi sector’s dramatic 60% contraction, driven by fraud and financing issues, exacerbated the decline. Adjusting for this anomaly, the market would have only dropped by 1,3%.

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“The South African automotive industry remains below pre-pandemic levels, with sales still trailing 2019 figures. For sustainable growth, experts suggest the market must exceed 600 000 annual units. Falling short of this benchmark makes it difficult for the sector to achieve scale and long-term stability,” he says.

Consumer Trends: Affordability and Preference Shifts

Affordability emerged as a dominant theme in 2024. The average selling price of passenger vehicles declined, reflecting a clear shift towards more budget-friendly options, particularly in the B-segment. This trend, driven by rising economic pressures and tighter credit conditions, was also evident in increased used car sales.

SUVs and crossovers continued their meteoric rise in popularity, now accounting for 53% of passenger vehicle sales. The introduction of new models has further bolstered this segment, particularly in premium categories. Consumer preferences have also evolved, with in-car experiences such as advanced infotainment systems, connectivity, and luxury features becoming key purchase drivers, even for mid-range vehicles.

“The automotive sector faces significant structural hurdles. Despite the existence of a national automotive master plan since 2018, little progress has been made in optimising the local market. The failure to implement key elements of the plan has stifled growth, while efforts to integrate regional markets through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement remain incomplete.

“Additionally, the lack of incentives to promote new energy vehicles (NEVs) is hindering South Africa’s ability to attract investment in this area. While a new tax mechanism offers a 35% incentive for capital investment in NEVs, the local market for these vehicles remains negligible, creating a barrier to growth in domestic production and exports.”

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Globally, Chinese and Indian vehicle manufacturers are asserting dominance, with China now accounting for 29% of global vehicle production. This trend is reshaping competition in South Africa, as both nations expand their influence in emerging markets.

At the same time, global conflicts, from the Russia-Ukraine war to Middle East tensions, have added to supply chain disruptions and market volatility. Climate-related challenges have also begun to impact South Africa, further complicating the operating environment.

“To thrive, the South African automotive industry must overcome structural inefficiencies and prioritise market integration and innovation. Affordability will remain a key factor influencing consumer behaviour, alongside a growing preference for SUVs and advanced in-car experiences.

“The sector’s future also hinges on its ability to embrace new energy vehicles, align with global trends, and secure regional trade agreements. With these measures in place, South Africa could unlock the growth potential necessary to surpass the critical 600 000-unit threshold and secure long-term sustainability.”

Vehicle Reveals

The event wasn’t just about industry insights. TSAM’s Senior Vice President for Sales and Marketing, Leon Theron, unveiled sic new models including:

- The updated Corolla Cross, featuring a refreshed design and enhanced safety features.
- The powerful Fortuner GR-S, now boasting 165kW and 550Nm of torque.
- The refined GR Yaris Upgrade, with an impressive 210kW output and a new eight-speed automatic option.
- The distinctive Hilux Legend 55, showcasing wide-body styling and performance upgrades.
- The enhanced Lexus LX and its newly introduced hybrid variant, the 700h.
- The all-new Lexus GX, a rugged yet luxurious off-roader debuting with an adventurous Overtrail variant.

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